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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ibexx who wrote (41591)	3/18/2002 4:38:13 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

The tech companies that are further down the food chain - such as AMAT etc - would see signs of recovery way before the ones close to end markets (ie INTC, MSFT). It has always been the case with every recovery in the past. This also explains the inconsistency re. near-term prospects of high tech companies. Wall Street as well as many SIers think all techs are the same, and I've been trying to profit from such misconceptions. It also seems that sentiment towards tech stocks has been the most bearish I have seen in many months. It is not reflected in the bull/bear data which still sends signals a lot of optimism. What I find the most interesting is the fact that according to AMGDATA, tech funds have seen outflows in the past 10 of 12 weeks! Note that these are just tech funds. The larger umbrella of growth funds has received more of the inflows along with the value funds. Of course, growth funds invest in tech but will not be limited to this sector. That is the most bullish case I can make for the Nasdaq. The bear argument is valuations and that is still a big problem. Is it as important now as it was a few weeks ago when the market was NOT expecting the big disappointments from McData and Oracle? I doubt it. Now, the expectations are lower from tech even if valuations are high. Those outflows should come to an end sometime; profit warnings are not that bad yet overall. Maybe we are due for a major rally in the Nasdaq soon. Again my major reason is that there are just too many bears on tech. Too many are putting money into value stocks and non-tech growth. One more major warning from a tech company could turn the market higher. Maybe one more storage or networker warning could do the trick. jmho