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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (36481)	3/18/2002 9:38:21 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 68077

From Briefing.com: Close Dow -29.48 at 10577.75, S&P -0.59 at 1165.55, Nasdaq +8.76 at 1877.06: The market opened the session on a firmly bullish note but drifted steadily lower into the afternoon before staging a minor bounce in late trade. Helping the indices in early action were comments from the Street. Merrill Lynch suggested that growth in Q1 was at a 5%-6% annual pace which would be expected to fuel a rebound in earnings. Bear Stearns indicated that semiconductor foundries TSM and UMC were both extremely bullish, and will both exceed Q2 estimates; also believes both will up their 2002 capital spending plans. Salomon Smith Barney raised their S&P 500 EPS forecast by $1.25 for both 2002 and 2003, representing a 7.5% growth rate for 2002 and a 13.3% growth rate for 2003. Unfortunately the market averages were unable to build on this run with the Dow and the S&P stymied near their respective recovery highs (Dow Jan high 10,663.83/S&P Mar high 1173.03, Jan high 1176.97) while the Nasdaq Composite proved unable to take out its 200 day simple ma at 1894. The cautious mood may have been tied to the Fed meeting tomorrow. Although no change in interest rates is anticipated, Briefing.com is expecting the Fed to turn to a neutral policy directive from the easing bias issued in each of the directives since Dec 2000. The performance of interest rate sensitive issues (homebuilders, banks) did suggest some concern over the direction of rates (not the timing). Homebuilders were also hurt by Fulcrum putting out a SELL recommendation on BZH, HOV, RYL, TOL but Salomon Smith Barney suggested that the stocks are still trading below historical P/E multiples, says it would use near-term, rate-driven dips in sentiment as buying opportunities. Oil related issued performed well as crude oil futures pushed above the $25 level for the first time since last Sep. The market did improve its posture over the last two hours but with the Fed not on tap until tomorrow afternoon, it may prove difficult for follow through buying to develop. Volume was light with market internals mixed to slightly positive. DJUA +0.8%, DOT +2.2%, Nasdaq 100 +0.7%, SOX +1%, S&P Midcap 400 +0.8%, XOI +0.6%, NYSE Adv/Dec 1770/1396, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1943/1589 6:10PM Credence Systems (CMOS) 21.02 +0.91: -- Correction -- We reported earlier that the Multex consensus for Q1 revenues is $40.2 mln; that was incorrect, the consensus is $34.8 mln. 4:40PM Motorola names new CFO (MOT) 13.89 -0.11: Company announces that David Devonshire has been named Motorola's chief financial officer (CFO) succeeding Carl Koenemann, executive vice president, who indicated more than 18 months ago his plans to retire following a 32-year career at Motorola. 10:35AM Nasdaq Composite Intraday : -- Technical -- Index gapped higher at the open to clear resistance at congestion around 1879/1882. At current levels, the Nasdaq is in the midst of several notable technical levels. The 1887/1889 area brackets its 50 and 100-day simple moving averages and appears to be serving as a pivot point in early trading. That's followed by additional resistance at its 200-day simple moving average of 1894. To the downside, look for initial support at 1879/1882 followed by additional floors at 1872 and 1866. 2:31PM Genesis Microchip (GNSS) 29.96 +0.31: CIBC World Markets reiterates Buy rating and $45 price target in an intra-day note, following GNSS's filing of patent infringement lawsuit against its three principal Taiwanese competitors on 3/15, an action which should impair these competitors from penetrating large flat panel display OEM accounts, in near term. Firm believes these Taiwanese competitors represented GNSS's near-term market share threat (up to 20%), due to their low-cost products, designed almost identically to GNSS's socket arrays (ICs designed to GNSS slots, so that FPD OEMs do not have to re-design for their chips). SmartASIC, one of the companies hit with lawsuit, believes GNSS's claim is totally without merit and intends to fight it....Today has been a rocky day for GNSS, but it is trading up from Friday's mid-day levels. finance.yahoo.com^SOXX+^IXIC&d=t An after hours look at the Wennerstrom Semiconductor Equipment Group shows the strength today: finance.yahoo.com^SOXX+QQQ&d=t Thanks for sharing the notes on market expectations Harry! RtS

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (36481)	3/18/2002 10:02:28 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 68077

ONIS Rev miss, CC notes After Hours Monday : A mixed bias is evident in after hours trade with the Nasdaq slightly underperforming amid warnings and earnings misses. ONI Systems (ONIS -5.9%) announced it expects Q1 revenues in the range of $18-$24 mln vs the consensus of $39.5 mln; sees net loss in the range of $0.24-$0.27 per share vs the consensus for a net loss of $0.18 per share. Company in the process of being acquired and according to the press release the merger is still on but Ciena (CIEN -5%), which is doing the acquisition, is also under pressure. EXFO ( (-4.4%) reported in line for Q2 but issued a warning for Q3. Targets sales of $14.5-$17.0 mln and a pro forma net loss of $0.05-$0.07 vs ests of $17.6 mln and a loss of $0.05. [Harry: We have a serious problem in the telecom sector. In the ONIS call, they mentioned that they expected maintance levels would have been $40 mil this Q. But today they are announcing 18 to 24 mil in rev for the Q due to cap ex push outs. Some customers are dealing with bankruptcy issues, some are dealing with quality of fiber issues in rings and some are waiting for capacity utilization to justify bring on more capacity. I expected this Q to be bad in general for the telecom equipment sector as demand as the retail level has been weak except for very basic services locally. But the ONIS call suggests the rock bottom levels of spending have essentially been cut in half. That means carriers are delaying spending till they actually see a recovery in the 2H. Given this scenario the worst case expectation for this Q and next Q are not low enough. For companies like JNPR who have heavy institutional support at the magic $10 level, it means they can now realistic break below the level. I did not expect much movement in stocks like JNPR till the July time frame. I would expect a new down trend to start now. ONIS is seeing more trial activity in Europe than the rest of the world but it is not translating into sales. Slow down is world wide, no region is weaker than others. ONIS has very little sales in Asia, but what little there is is seeing aggressive pricing. Now loss of sales to competitors. No pressure on ASP's above normal. Management sounded truly surprised at the rev miss. They are announcing the miss earlier than usually because of the merge and the need to disclose. Still two weeks left in the Q.]

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (36481)	3/19/2002 7:27:26 AM
From: j g cordes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 68077

Harry, the absolute value of VIX probably isn't as important as some caution. As MT points out its trading range has varried through the years. A moving average crossover or using another absolute market indicator as a combined moa cross over, like issues unchanged, might generate better signals. VIX probalby isn't ready to turn until there's a cautious pause in the aggregate confidence.. unchanged issues. However, I like some charts now.. like VTSS, may buy after it seems to have re-tested exceeding its recent lows. And LU might be a low risk play_ buy the stock, sell the August calls.. almost a 30% return (if you believe they won't go much lower). The economists, if one can group them, seem to be very certain of a major upturn. I've been seeing upward revisions on GDP, employment, productivity, sales.. not the same message CEO's are sending.