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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AC Flyer who wrote (16979)	3/18/2002 7:29:32 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Respond to of 74559

ah, but he is dopey. you related to donner and bliztzen btw? i hear maggie is back in town. you thinking about going back to your roots? oops ruts? keep up the good work. gotta truckload of hoovers on the way for you.

To: AC Flyer who wrote (16979)	3/19/2002 12:18:28 AM
From: Gary H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

You left out participating in gold swaps.

To: AC Flyer who wrote (16979)	3/19/2002 2:54:22 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 74559

Enron failure boosts Latin America By Richard Lapper Published: March 17 2002 18:41 \| Last Updated: March 18 2002 11:23 news.ft.com <<The Lord work in mysterious ways!>> When policymakers studied the impact of last year's two big financial disasters, Latin America seemed more vulnerable to the impact of debt default and devaluation in Argentina than to the collapse of Enron. Strangely though, so far as recent trends in the markets are concerned, the reverse seems to be the case - and it has little to do with the energy trading group's investments in the region. Of course, Argentina's broader impact on Latin American politics and development is undeniable. At last week's annual Inter-American Development Bank conference in the Brazilian city of Fortaleza, Argentina was, as one banker put it, "at the back of everybody's minds. A lot of things that were considered impossible happened. A lot of what was thought to be irreversible was reversed." But for all the talk of political, ideological and what Enrique Iglesias, the bank's president, calls "invisible contagion", Argentina's desperate situation is having next to no impact on Latin American markets - quite the opposite in fact. In the most striking development, Brazil, Argentina's neighbour and partner in the Mercosur customs union, is enjoying an extraordinary rally in its bond and currency markets. And that is where Enron comes in. The Enron collapse has undermined confidence in blue-chip US companies and is leading fund managers to reconsider the benefits of broader diversification. One result is a new-found interest in emerging markets. Brazil has been one of the main beneficiaries (Russia is another), partly because its markets offer the size and liquidity that international investors like. Also, Brazilian assets are relatively cheap, having fallen in price last year mainly due to Argentine-related worries. In addition, US interest rate cuts have generated liquidity, which means fund managers have cash to spend. And - again because of last year's fears - they are starting from a low base. The result has been a strong rise in Brazilian bond prices and a strengthening in its currency, the Real. Since October, yields have fallen 5 percentage points. Investors brave enough to buy at the start of the year have already enjoyed a total return of over 8 per cent. Brazil's fundamentals are supportive of this interest. Fiscal management has been tight. Brazil has been quick to adjust at the first sign of international turbulence. And there have been signs of deeper structural changes. Walter Molano, of Connecticut-based BCP Securities, points to the way Brazilian companies are now beginning to produce goods that were imported before Brazil's 1999 devaluation. Even so, Brazil has a long way to go. Public debt increased last year and will probably rise more as the government takes advantage of current market enthusiasm to issue new paper. About a quarter of the total outstanding is indexed to the dollar. Debt service ratios are falling, but among the bigger Latin economies they are still higher than anywhere except Argentina. All this makes Brazil vulnerable to a shift in mood. Moreover, Brazil faces a potentially turbulent campaign ahead of October's general elections. Last week the first sign that the campaign of Jose Serra, the favoured candidate of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso, is taking off caused further jubilation among investors but there are plenty of potential banana skins. Whatever its political stripe, the next government is likely to come under pressure to be less orthodox. The risks require more serious attention - especially after the Argentine crisis. Unfortunately, if liquidity remains abundant they are unlikely to get it. As Celso Pinto, the editor of Valor, the daily business newspaper, wrote recently: "The truth is that in cycles of good liquidity many people in the markets like arguments that reinforce their appetite for risk and more return."