Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (62161)	3/18/2002 8:11:09 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Gottfried, That is a great list! I had to make a "hard copy" of it so I can refer to it from time to time at a moments notice. The list makes it so easy to catalog the different bear species met during each day.<gg> <<Seriously: it is worrisome that the generally accepted wisdom calling for improvement in everything 2H02 is generally accepted. That means it's priced in. So, something entirely different may happen?>> I think a lot of the anticipated improvement is priced in, but not all. However, as to what is actually going to happen - and when, I don't know. As I read some of the posts from the different threads recently, I still sense a lot of "bearishness" out there. As long as that continues, the upward bias in stock prices recently should continue I think. Tomorrow, if SEMI releases the BtB as previously scheduled, the impact of the number could be substantial in either direction if it is out of line with expectations. For me, I just want to see a nice increase in bookings, but I think it may take one more month for that to happen. I will continue to wait with "bated breath" until we find out for sure what the number is tomorrow. Don

To: Gottfried who wrote (62161)	3/19/2002 11:36:02 AM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Gottfried, Looking back to 1996 cycle it appears that AMAT dropped to its lowest during the March/April plateau. The high was $55 and low was $45 the beginning of April. As Tito would say, "It YoYo's" Maybe, the reason was tax selling the first of April '96. It however, then proceeed back up to $54 and then broke to an immediate new highs to $64 followied by another new high of $72 before falliing to $58 in June. 96. However, most of us, except Jacob, missed the big movement from $26 lows of thiscyclea. I have little AMAT this cycle having switched horses to Qcom which according to our NAIC data has a greater chance for gains. I just will have to wait and see.. The SEMI sector is at 60%, market over bought while the Telephone sector is at 32%. As you are aware I look at the statistics and potential upside gain vrs the downside risk. AMAT is an excellent company with little dept. Qcom has no debt, as CSCO and other companies. During these times I believe CASH is king plus the big institutions are hyping and are in AMAT and can dump it immediately. Just my opinions. Paul Paul Paul

To: Gottfried who wrote (62161)	3/19/2002 5:31:33 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Respond to of 70976

> it is worrisome that the generally accepted wisdom calling for improvement in everything 2H02 is generally accepted. A survey of high tech eps improvement for the fallowing quarters averaged 15%, 132%, and 78%. So you could say there is substantial expectation of earnings improvement built into the stocks. The news (it was on CNBC) did not say if the eps increase was to be sequential or yoy. It's too bad I don't have access to the all you can eat Wall Street buffet that I used enjoy, or I could get you much more detailed info myself. ST