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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TheBusDriver who wrote (9569)	3/19/2002 9:01:28 AM
From: Frank Pembleton	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

Wayne, energy stocks... I sure blew this one myself. I've always looked at the energy sector as an end of boom cycle play. Jeez, the last half-a-dozen recessions were kick started by high-energy prices. At the moment the GDP is running at a fraction of a % point, and the S&P p/e is at an all time high? Do you follow the Calpine saga much? Tight to non-existent spark spreads due to poor electricity demand and rising ng prices combined with massive debt has the company imploding. They've just cancelled over $3 billion in gas turbine orders - I was reading that the electrical generation industry has pulled over $7 billion in capex because of the demand situation. I can't look too good for General Electric either. Regards Frank P.

To: TheBusDriver who wrote (9569)	3/19/2002 11:29:45 AM
From: isopatch	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

Wayne. Agree. Institutional investors missed the entry on the energy stocks along with the public. Very few got in early and in size in late February. That's one of the reasons some of these stocks are going straight up. Fund managers are being forced to chase them because they are under the gun to be in the strong sectors when they have to report their portfolio holdings at the end of the quarter. Some of the biggest runs of my career have come when I was able to anticipate that and front run these institutional buying stampedes. My portfolio has been going to one new record high after another in the past several weeks. So I'll just let em run till the party shows signs of being over. With retirement $$ pouring in till mid-April, that will drive these stocks even higher. FWIW, my early read is there will be a sizable correction in energy sometime in the 2nd quarter. Those who missed this upleg can get positioned then Cheers, Isopatch