key to investing in gold/silver is before it rises 500%
(posted to a friend on another thread, just learned of this thread, so excuse the indirect addressing)
I doubt most folks could either define inflation, nor cite the root cause of price inflation
"inflation" is not "price inflation", altho the Federal Reserve would prefer that you buy their pablum
in 2001 the Fed increased money supply by 20%
just wait, and you will see price inflation
that is only one reason why gold has gotten off its back
failed Japanese bank system is another
Warren Buffet bought 129 million oz of silver in 1997-98
your bag of 1-oz silver bars reminds me of my 3 bags of old Liberty Half Dollars
they were bought in 1998 for $1.40 each
probably worth $2 each now, my only loose holding
interesting that coins are now showing a gap in value, relative to raw silver bars
there is a run on coins now, which are immune from Fed policy, and speak directly to the silver shortage
for several years, all old silver coins have either been secured in home caches, or melted down
this gap reminds me of the spread in USTreasurys versus CorpBonds, except the reverse
I hear what you say regarding central bank bully tactics, their fiat dictum of what constitutes real money, their ability to change laws (re: gold holdings)
they are a powerful adversary against profiting from gold and silver
but they cannot dictate indefinitely in the world of silver
silver is absolutely positively different from gold
when price inflation shows its delayed reaction head, and my guess is by the end of 2002 it will, only then will private investors both domestic and abroad invest in gold and silver
by that time, the Fed's alliance with JPMorgan and Citigroup will not hold back the Barbarians at the Gate
remember how the Fed overshoots every single, every single time, both in easing and tightening
I do accept the premise that the US Money Supply (MZM) must compensate for the burned capital from dead debt
Enron, Global Crossing, numerous telecoms, KMart, etc
but that cannot explain well over $1000 billion added to MZM
and it hasnt stopped
in February it increased again, in expansion
my guess is the Fed is about done expanding MZM
now they will sit back, and piss their pants, nay cream their jeans, as their inflationary policy unfolds into price inflation
as others allude to, precious metals rise primarily in inflationary times
we have it now in a technical sense
we will have it by next year with Joe & Sally SixPack understanding the concept
I just wonder if Murrey is related to the SixPacks
that is why gold is bottoming and getting off its back now
the smart guys know that conditions for reversal are in place
Y2K had a critical importance in coordinating a simultaneous economic expansion in 1999, followed by a simultaneous economic decline in late 2000 into 2001
now the Post-Y2K Effect will likely bring about a simultaneous rebirth of price inflation, a simultaneous questioning of the value of the King Dollar, and a simultaneous brisk pace into precious metals
which brings me back to silver
I dont want to repeat my main points
but I believe JPMorgan and (Rubin's) Citigroup are now the official suppression tools for the Federal Reserve
they probably believe they are patriotic in their defense of the fiat currency dollar foundation
but BLOWBACK is impossible to stop, only when?
evidence indicates that while silver has been depleted in the US Strategic Reserve (from USMint drawdowns), while recoverable silver has dried up from old coins and elsewhere, while some cooperative foreign hordes have been freed up, the game is just about over
earrings on the middle class of India are not gonna bail out the holders of paper silver short positions
and neither is China
my reading indicates the annual silver deficit has grown to 150 million oz (moz), and the 1990-2000 deficit was 1200 moz, and the USGovt has announced the USMint will be a buyer now (from Couer d'Alene - CDE), and a strange set of circumstances has unfolded
the list of pure silver stock plays are few: SIL, PAAS, SSRI
the list of strong joint gold/silver plays are few: HL, AEM, CDE
it seems the gap for the last couple years in physical silver has been made up by paper silver
I believe JPM and Citi and now short enough silver to account for perhaps close to a full year's consumption
and the Comex is cooperating with the game
in 1980 the Comex sharply raised margin reqmts for long gold and silver contracts
now with clear deficits, an announced silver delivery default, they refuse to raise margin reqmts for short positions
and furthermore, they allow the open short silver interest to steadily ride at twice the known silver world supply
teh short open silver interest is ACCELERATING
the govt is a bully, for certain
but silver contracts are gonna default on a widespread basis
silver will break the back on this suppression game for gold/silver
the key is silver
silver is sometimes called "the ultimate technology stock"
its applications are broadening yearly
e.g. electronics, superconductivity, photography, filtration, and more
it is a miracle metal with no known substitute
Handy & Harmon is the first to experience a silver default on delivery
it will be followed by countless others
the ones that count in my book are likely defaults to Kodak and Intel
I dont know which silver stock is the best
they are probably equally great silver stocks
sure, they are making no money
that is because world silver prices are below production costs
Apex's silver mine is a huge one in Bolivia (silver, zinc)
how long can that last with such a vital silver metal?
not long, at least until shortages are reported
Wall St Journal gave back page C-section billing to the HandyHarmon delivery default
now games might be played at Govt Silver Watchdog groups
they are apparently submitting confusing misleading conflicting reports with units shifting, charts with no numbers, etc
this jig is almost up
Apex (SIL) was started by George Soros, the founder
they have tons of cash, ready to pull the switch
this will explode on the paper silver side
several entities at once will compete on the long side
i.e. bullion banks, mining firms, and USMint
CHINA WILL NOT COOPERATE WITH SUPPLIERS
RATHER, CHINA WILL PARTICIPATE IN SCREWING THE US FEDERAL RESERVE
the biggest question on the WHEN? side is how much money JPM and Citigroup are willing to lose?
are they willing to die?
they probably received assurances and guarantees from Clinton and Rubin
I am starting to believe Rubin is the grand maestro behind the gold/silver suppression scheme
he has forced Europe unwillingly into the game
Bank of England is now down from 720 moz to 310 moz
the 1999 Manhattan Accord had Europe backing out of the gold dumping game
a tidbit on silver production info
an interesting inverse relationship exists between zinc/lead prices and silver
because they are mined together in the recent decade
the pure silver mines are all gone
as zinc prices drop, zinc mining ceases
and with it goes silver production
zinc is at a deep low, with mines shutting down
the amount of silver production lost in 2001 alone is staggering
I could quote you figures, since this topic is my project
it will result in a second early retirement
THE JIG IS UP, paper silver doesnt conduct electricity or develop film
/ jim |
