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Strategies & Market Trends : Commodities - The Coming Bull Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (1164)	3/19/2002 12:08:04 PM
From: Ahda	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1643

i have more questions than answers like most people these days. i also think, thus far, that the rise in the crb broadly speaking, may be a false spring unless in some cases, it is a matter of too many dollars chasing too few goods/materials as money leaves imaginary assets for "real" ones. You have probably just summed it up. Somehow there is so much currency floating in the stock market excess valuation in my opinion is still the trend. Nasdq funds turned to the Dow so the questions is with so much cash in the market can the Dow perform as the evaluation I feel exceeds realistic valuation. People turned to housing as investment but as far as i am concerned that has become the new balloon a trend equivelent to dot com home page and the over exuberance that let to the collapse of said. I feel the housing market is over exuberant now. Tech had incredible wages attached to it and the future was unlimited. Military provisions and wages attached to said are more realistic. Commodites could very well come under pressure as the financial world is being pressured for return.

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (1164)	3/21/2002 12:55:10 PM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1643

>> add that to what you said, you still have the question of pricing power.. if the recovery here is weak or non existent (the double dip) and growth of any kind is anemic vs. robust, where's the pricing power? << people still have to eat. people still have to drive their car to work. the world won't just grind to a halt, people will still consume commodities. oil and gas prices have seen a nice bounce. bush is doing his part to firm steel prices. he is threatening to spread his tariff protection to other industries as well. there are lots of scenarios to make commodities more attractive than paper assets. >> i also think, thus far, that the rise in the crb broadly speaking, may be a false spring unless in some cases, it is a matter of too many dollars chasing too few goods/materials as money leaves imaginary assets for "real" ones. << this is a real possibility. commodities don't have accounting problems <g> of course they are also undeniably cheap unlike many paper assets.