Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Murrey Walker who wrote (48796)	3/19/2002 11:47:56 AM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 65232

Fed Seen Signaling Faith in Recovery By Joanne Morrison Tuesday March 19, 11:03 am Eastern Time WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve was expected on Tuesday to lower its recession defenses after more than a year, signaling its belief in a U.S. economic recovery and opening the door for interest rate hikes later in 2002. Policymakers at the central bank began their closely-watched meeting on schedule at 9:00 a.m. amid widespread expectation they will lay the rhetorical groundwork for an eventual rise in borrowing costs from current four-decade lows with a subtle but important shift in wording. An announcement of the panel's decision is expected at about 2:15 p.m. Most top Wall Street firms are bracing for the Fed to drop its official emphasis on concerns about economic softness, saying it sees risks to the economy evenly balanced between inflation and weakness. That change in the central bank's so-called tilt would have no direct impact on overnight interest rates but would move it a step closer to eventual increases in borrowing costs, which now stand at 1.75 percent after 11 rate cuts last year. The Fed last met on Jan. 29-30, leaving rates unchanged and retaining its warning that risks were tilted toward weakness. However, it said the economic outlook had ``become more promising.'' With the global economy showing signs of a return to health, speculation about higher interest rates elsewhere in the world is growing. Sweden's Riksbank on Tuesday became the first major central bank to tighten monetary policy since 2000 and signaled further rises could be in the pipeline. DATA SURPRISE A recent string of surprisingly robust U.S. data, along with Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's statement earlier this month that a recovery was ``well under way,'' has led analysts to expect the central bank will need to raise interest rates later this year to contain inflation as the economy gathers steam. ``The economy appears to have turned the corner. As a result, further rate cuts are off the table,'' said Brian Wesbury, chief economist at Griffin, Kubik, Stephens and Thompson in Chicago. ``The Fed needs to recognize that by moving to a neutral statement.'' U.S. Treasuries were slightly firmer in early trading on Tuesday ahead of the meeting. Stocks opened up higher as investors bet the Fed's comments would support wide market belief the economy is on the mend. A poll taken March 15 by Reuters showed Wall Street bond firms that deal directly with the Fed in fixed-income markets believe the Fed will not change the federal funds rate, the key overnight rate for loans between banks. But 19 of the 24 firms in the survey expected the Fed to abandon the warning about economic weakness it has maintained since December 2000. The poll also suggested a growing belief that borrowing costs could be headed higher as early as mid-year. The Fed, first attempting to rescue the economy from a business-led downturn and then from the shock to confidence from the Sept. 11 attacks, carried out one of the most aggressive rate-cutting sprees in its history during 2001, slashing borrowing costs by a total of 4.75 percentage points. Banc One chief economist Anthony Chan said future rate increases would be aimed at returning the very low fed funds rate to a more normal level to accommodate solid but not excessive growth. An avalanche of recent data has suggested growing economic momentum with tame inflation. FOMC members will also be armed with a report from the Commerce Department on Tuesday showing a wider-than-expected U.S. trade gap in January. Analysts viewed a rise in imports as a positive economic sign. Increased purchases of consumer goods like pharmaceuticals, electronics, toys and apparel accounted for half of the month-to-month rise in imports, while purchases of computers accessories, industrial machines and other capital goods also rose. On Friday, the Fed's gauge of industrial production showed a 0.4 percent rise in February, its second consecutive monthly gain and an encouraging sign for manufacturing, the hardest hit sector in the downturn. Consumer optimism, a key underpinning of the economy, is also firming while the labor market -- typically the last sector of the economy to turn after a recession -- has shown signs of improvement. In February, companies added 66,000 workers to their payrolls, the first gain in seven months.

To: Murrey Walker who wrote (48796)	3/19/2002 11:59:16 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 65232

capiche, amigo... techs will disappoint poor pricing power, asian imports undercutting excessive competition, excessive capacity what the hell is so attractive about techs? unless of course you are talking about security software yes, late 1970's and early 1980's were a response to OPEC-inspired price inflation, followed by vast FED-inspired money supply inflation now, we must humanly engineer inflation back in order to pay for the bad debts of 1990's but the wildcard is that energy prices will take off first oil, then natural gas and we will see real price inflation from passed on energy cost increases the result will be an eventual worldwide stampede into gold/silver and a slow leak in the USDollar I predict AlQaeda's next moves will focus as much on the US Building, Symbols, and Security... as it will on the USDollar they will blackmail and coerce Arab wealth into the EURO currency / jim

To: Murrey Walker who wrote (48796)	3/19/2002 12:21:21 PM
From: BirdDog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

While I'm more comfortable with the tech sector than anything else... I agree... Too many investors try making money in things they don't know about. They end up eating it because they can't know... it just takes too much time to learn. Many of us have spent loads of time learning tech. We're best off working with what we know. Besides...tech moves. All you have to do is be patient, and play the moves. There is a ton of money to be made in tech... Gold...I fear way too much that the Governments of this world are controlling price. The Governments are controlling the economies also. We/They can't afford to have Gold go nuts and the economies to go down the drain. They have to control it all. They can't allow what the PMers say is going to happen, happen...no way. But then, I would have to spend years to learn this properly...just like any other sector....so I'll stay with the one sector I have already spent years learning...besides...like I said before.... it moves. BirdDog@Prairie.com