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To: wanna_bmw who wrote (162507)	3/19/2002 12:13:49 PM
From: greg s	Respond to of 186894

wbmw, re: other analysts have hitched a ride on the "economy sucks" bandwagon, Joseph is posting signs of a recovery My opinion is that Joseph is right. In my experience, the market doesn't rebound from a recession until "blood is running in the streets", in other words, pessimism rules and the pundits cannot see anything but darkness on the horizon. I believe we are at that point in the current economic cycle and Joseph sees beyond the darkness. JMHO, greg

To: wanna_bmw who wrote (162507)	3/19/2002 12:24:08 PM
From: Road Walker	Respond to of 186894

WBMW, re: While all the other analysts have hitched a ride on the "economy sucks" bandwagon, Joseph is posting signs of a recovery. Ironically, Joseph was also the one that predicted the downfall, while all the other starry eyed analysts were riding the bull market. I wonder if history will repeat itself, and Joseph again finds that he is correct, while all the other analysts get left behind. What do you think? Actually, I believe Joseph went bullish on Semi's just prior to 9/11, maybe even a little earlier. The SOX is probably about the same level as it was then, with quite a ride in between. I like Joseph better than the rest, at least he's trying to aim at where the market is going, not where it is today. As far as the "economy sucks" bandwagon, most analysts are getting much more bullish on the economy in general. Some predicting as much as 5% GDP growth, and 25%+ earnings growth, this year. It's the tech growth that is in question. Looking at longer term charts of the SOX index, where you normally get some kind of a "V" bottom in the cycle, this one has a long, flat bottom. I suppose that's because of the huge capacity and inventory that was added in 99/00, it's taking longer to work through the excesses (?). BWDIK, John

To: wanna_bmw who wrote (162507)	3/19/2002 12:47:14 PM
From: Robert Douglas	Respond to of 186894

Last week, the Federal Reserve reported utilization rose marginally 30bps to 62.6% in Feb., after hitting a low of 59.4% in August I hate to point out the negatives, because really I'm quite sanguine about the future, but those utilization rates are so low that there isn't likely to be a pickup in spending until they are much higher. However, if those utilization rates are in reality higher because a good chunk of those idle plants will never be brought back on line due to inefficiencies, then we have a different animal. I believe there's some truth to this.