To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (62168 ) 3/20/2002 8:40:28 PM From: John Trader Read Replies (1) | Respond to Jacob, Please keep sharing your thoughts on the overall market. You have "nailed it" a few times, and I predict your good predictions will continue. Here are a few simple thoughts about the economy. The market isn't a bad predictor (better than the average economist at least), and that suggests a rebound at this point. In the technology sector, memory prices have been going up, which is a sign that things are turning. And finally, we are getting near the 3-year mark from when all those computers were bought for Y2K. I am not sure how true this is, but I have heard that many PCs are replaced after just three years. This could apply to servers and other equipment as well. Finally, Sam's article does have some merit. The fact that people are worried about tech stocks and corporate accounting can't be a bad sign. Certainly part of the high valuations in tech is due to the severity of and our position in this cycle. Lastly, maybe that nasty last mile problem will start to go away in the next few years due to Ultra Wide Band fixed wireless, etc. That would be a big plus for technology stocks in my opinion. Short term we may have another income tax selloff, but I don't think it will be as bad this year. For one thing, more people are likely to have losses so their tax bills would be lower (two sides to that argument, however).
