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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (17036)	3/19/2002 10:40:05 PM
From: Ilaine	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Now that's strange. My research shows that the Wilshire 5000 was started in 1974. I don't think there were 5000 stocks traded on real stock exchanges (as opposed to curbsite and penny stocks) in 1929, much less 1925.

To: orkrious who wrote (17036)	3/19/2002 11:26:06 PM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 74559

<the US has lower debt as a percentage of GDP than at many times in the country's history and just about the lowest debt per capita in the developed world.> Yea, LOL... here's corporate debt, 'unprecidented': contraryinvestor.com Here's household debt as a % of GDP... same: contraryinvestor.com AND, here's a great graph comparing total U.S. debt compared to National Income... refuting cheif-flyingbull's silly statement: mwhodges.home.att.net DAK

To: orkrious who wrote (17036)	3/20/2002 4:43:38 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

<Ned Davis Research recently provided some data that suggests just how high is too high.On January 31, 2002, the value of the Wilshire 5000 (which contains 6500 stocks) was $12.7 trillion, equivalent to 129% of GDP (GDP being $9.9 billion). While this is down from a peak 170.8% of GDP at the stock market's March 2000 bubble-high, it is far above the average ratio since 1925 of 54.5%.Ned Davis maintains that anything above 71.8% is "very overvalued." By way of historical comparison (a quaint notion in this day and age), this ratio was 86.5% before the 1929 crash and 79.2% before the 1973-74 collapse. At the beginning of the bull market that began in 1982, this ratio was down to 36%.-> In 1900, life expectancy wasn't all that great. Same for 1929. For historic comparison, we should note this carefully. At the beginning of the bull run in 1982 and during the 1974 collapse, life expectancy was significantly less than now. We should expect reversion to the historic ratios of life expectancy to money to happiness to price to earnings to market cap to rural to urban to exports and imports and nothing should be different from 1929 or earlier. Our lives now are greatly overvalued or very overvalued. We should expect to revert to the mean because reverting to the mean is a fundamental law of nature and we all know that if it's written in the book of nature, we can't expect humans to do anything about it. So expect debt to drop, P:E to drop, life expectancy to drop, cash flow to drop, populations to drop, number of telephones to drop and everything else will drop - back to the mean of 1929 and the century before that and the half century afterwards. The fact that there is no gold standard is irrelevant. The end of the world is nigh. Mqurice