To: LemonHead who wrote (2330 ) 3/21/2002 8:43:04 PM From: Return to Sender Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 95531 From Briefing.com: General Commentary After a brief pause, the tech sector rebounded smartly in Thursday's session... Strength was broad-based, with the Networking (NWX), Internet (DOT), Software (GSO), Wireless (YLS), Hardware (HWI) and Semiconductor (SOX) indices posting gains of at least 2%... Widespread participation in yesterday's recovery, when viewed against relative weakness in the machinery, paper, chemicals and metals stocks, lends support to Briefing.com contention that money is rotating into later stage economic recovery plays, of which tech is one. Though Q1 earnings news in the days and weeks to come is apt to prove disappointing when viewed against the backdrop of the strengthening economy (as corporate profitability lags the recovery), traders shouldn't get overly alarmed by this fact... The strong economic numbers limits the downside risk, as it keeps traders focused on the future rather than the recent past, or the here and now. Obviously, tech stocks can only climb so far on the expectations of an earnings recovery... Pretty soon we are going to need to see solid evidence of such... As we alluded to on this page yesterday, early signs are encouraging as a number of tech companies have already guided higher for Q2... And with the economy showing no signs of letting up, corporate IT spending is likely to surprise on the upside later this year. The risk to the recovery scenario in techs as well as throughout the market is that an inventory-led economic rebound isn't followed up by an upturn in corporate spending... If that happens then traders are likely to grow disillusioned by the soft economic rebound and take prices lower later this year... While this remains a risk, Briefing.com contends that the current economic/earnings trends are encouraging enough to keep the market/sector well bid over the next two to three months... As long as momentum continues to build behind the economy, money managers increase exposure to tech... Maybe slowly at first, given history of false starts - but the more convinced investors become that the economic recovery is sustainable, the more aggressive traders will play the eventual rebound in techs. Briefing.com maintains that software, semiconductors, and hardware groups likely to pace the early rebound, with networking and telecom groups lagging behind. Robert Walberg 5:21PM Applied Materials announces 2-for-1 stock split (AMAT) 52.02 +1.02: Company announces that its Board of Directors has approved a two-for-one stock split of its common stock in the form of a 100% stock dividend. New shares resulting from this split are expected to be distributed on or about April 16, 2002 to stockholders of record as of April 1, 2002. 4:38PM Applied Materials (AMAT) 52.02 +1.02: On conference call, company says recovery is in progess...AMAT expects that capacity utilization rates at the foundries will increase to 80% by year-end, up from 50%-60%. 5:10PM Micron Tech tops bottom line estimates (MU) 34.51 +2.01: -- Update -- Company reports Q2 net loss of $0.05 per share, $0.02 better than the consensus estimate; Q2 revenues came in at $646 mln versus the consensus estimate of $691.3 mln; company ended its second quarter of fiscal 2002 with approximately $1.5 billion in cash and liquid investments. 4:10PM Solectron misses estimates; warns for Q3 (SLR) 8.25 -0.12: -- Update -- Company reports Q2 earnings of $0.01 per share, $0.01 worse than the consensus estimate; Q2 revenues came in at $2.97 bln versus the consensus estimate of $2.96 bln; sees Q3 revenues in the range of $2.7-$3.1 bln versus the current consensus estimate of $3.37 bln; sees Q3 net loss in the range of $0.06-$0.04 per share versus the current consensus estimate for earnings of $0.06 per share. 3:52PM Oracle Corp sees IT spending increase (ORCL) 13.15 +0.61: -- Update -- We are hearing from traders citing Bloomberg that ORCL's CFO says that the worst is over for IT demand, and sees spending increasing in the next 12-18 months. 3:35PM Nasdaq Composite Intraday : -- Technical -- Index continues to make new session highs and has just edged over intraday resistance at 1860. From current levels, look for subsequent overhead at 1867/1870 followed by additional resistance at 1879/1882. To the downside, look for initial support at 1866 followed by more significant support at 1850/1854. 3:17PM Cree receives government funding for biological agent systems (CREE) 13.46 +0.35: Co has received a contract issued by the U.S. Army Robert Morris Acquisition Center for the U.S. Army Research Laboratory and supported by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency for the development of light emitting diodes and laser diodes for use in systems for biological agent detection, such as anthrax, and for tactical communication systems. The total estimated value of the contract is$26.55 mln of which the government is providing $14.5 mln if fully funded, over a four-year period. 1:53PM Advanced Micro to replace Intel in Xbox? (AMD) 14.31 +0.14: The Register (a UK-based website) is reporting that MSFT engineers are busy designing the second version of Xbox around an AMD CPU, according to channel checks done by Fechtor Detwiler. According to the article, Fechtor Detwiler said in a research report that "INTC's strategy of combining graphics capability with processor function on the same device left MSFT with fears that they would lose the ability to provide enhanced video features offered by NVDA or potentially others." However, the article says the firm's reasoning is suspect, as the author doubts that INTC would jeopardize their Xbox contract for the sake of integrating graphics onto its CPUs. 10:07AM Applied Micro (AMCC) 8.05 -0.15: -- Correction -- Our earlier comment on Thomas Weisel's estimate cut incorrectly stated the March qtr as the period; the correct period for the est cut was FY03 (co's fiscal year ends in March). 9:30AM Applied Micro estimates cut by TWP (AMCC) 8.20: Thomas Weisel cuts ests due to a continued decline in carrier capital spending, indications from mgmt that strength in Jan has failed to carry over into Feb/Mar, and modest expectations for Q2/Q3 inventory replenishment; lowers Mar qtr rev/EPS ests to $155 mln/($0.18) from $190 mln/($0.13); believes that premium valuation relative to peers is not warranted given pushed-out growth prospects. Amkor Tech (AMKR) 21.04 +0.23: Bear Stearns upgrades to BUY from Attractive with a price target of $35, saying that the co should be among the first and fastest co's to recover due to: 1) gains due to geographical expansion (China and Japan), 2) share gains, 3) a more rapid move to outsourcing, 4) Gains to newer and more expensive packaging types, and 5) recapturing pricing lost during the downturn. 2:55PM Merrill on Semis : Firm's checks (at CTIA wireless conference this week) show group's Q2 preliminary orders indicate flat sequential revenues; believes this could lead to disappointment as consensus ests appear to indicate seq. increases during Q2. Merrill remains positive on RFMD (17.99 -0.07) and is confident co. will make their June qtr ests (Merrill is below Street consensus). Checks also indicate TQNT (11.68 -0.07) appears to have halted its share loss in the receiver mkt and appears to have regained some lost share in ERICY handsets for power amplifiers 1:06PM SSB on Semi Equip Group : Salomon Smith Barney sponsored a day of marketing with several semi equip cos; appears group is seeing signs of increased business activity although most are unwilling to call the upturn; consumable segments are seeing early strength now. ACLS's tone has grown more positive with recent increase in order levels. ATMI has won 25 of 48 opportunities related to emerging materials and believes mkt share gains will drive revenue increases. ASMI expects to ship beta of new Levitor RTP tool this year; has 12 alpha tools in field currently and believes it can gain 30% share in this mkt. finance.yahoo.com RtS