To: SusieQ1065 who wrote (841 ) 3/20/2002 12:44:22 AM From: X Y Zebra Read Replies (1) | Respond to Remember, the biggest surprises occur when you are not expecting them. nuances and subtleties of technical analysis. I followed each observation judiciously to determine if the move was justified. Fear and Greed being the enemy of prudent investing, I found it necessary to seek further credible evidence. By the time I could do a thorough job, the stock plummeted 16% and was leveling out. As suspected there were no fundamental, macroeconomic, political or any other reasons that would justify such a draconian move. In fact the fundamentals had substantially improved during the last year, indicating that the earnings and revenue growth rate was accelerating from the previously experienced 25% annual rate to something around 40%. Usually to find something wrong is fast and easy to find, since it is usually an overlooked item. However, to find nothing wrong (or to prove a negative) is actually impossible and usually ends up as "a preponderance of evidence" issue. It appears short sellers "jumped" on the stock in response to the downgrade by AG Edwards from Buy to hold on Jan 17th. This was followed in a sell recommendation by a couple of other advisory services on the 24th after it was down 15%. It seems that the advisory services believed this performance was "too good to be true" in light of the poor economy and comparison to the high tech sector. However, the price performance portends negative earnings performance, rather than an error in the assessment of the advisory service. This result since the Enron and Global crossing experiences should not be unexpected. As Andy Grove once said "only the paranoid survive." Armed with this knowledge, a prudent investor would have seen by the head fake during the middle of February and buy signal on Feb. 27 a great opportunity was available. Instead of selling my ACS, I loaded up on some short-term options and was amply rewarded. Today's jump of 3.71 to 56.75 takes the price up to near where it would have been if the event had not occurred. I consider your TC 2000 as my most valuable tool, homing in on real or potential problem areas. Even after 6 years, I feel like a student anxious to catch up with everybody else. Thanks again for a superb product. Andy (Sir Gardener)The SP-500 seems to be on the verge of an important breakout - above this year's high and above the highs of last year's fourth quarter. A decisive move to, say, above 1200 would mark an end to the major downtrend and the beginning of a major uptrend. -DW would happen if such move in the S&P gets rejected ?...
