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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (42057)	3/19/2002 11:23:17 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

Well, bobby, if we don't get a correction, your short will be creamed for a couple of weeks, but probably back in the money shortly afterwards, IMO. The SOXX doesn't want to correct right now, and that is going to be a problem for the COMP and NDX. Furthermore, the small banks are going up and up, and that is pushing the COMP up in spite of weakness in tech.

To: bobby beara who wrote (42057)	3/19/2002 11:33:27 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99280

Bobby, recessions start with consumers. This recession started with capital goods (bass ackwards). That means we have a very good chance of the consumer recession and a worse capital goods recession down the road. Where are we going to get the $50-Billion in re-financing money this year for the consumers? Where are we going to get the $50-Billion in tax cut rebates (That was like found money)? Where is the low interest credit going to come from (rates are going up, if you haven't heard). Furthermore, energy prices aren't going to drop like a rock this year like they did last year. All of this helped line the consumers' pockets last year, keeping them at the register. This year they're on their own, busy completely tapping out their resources. You can figure out the rest.