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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ajtj99 who wrote (42076)	3/20/2002 12:24:58 AM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

aj, you make valid points but we are in a different period now; unlike the 1970s when there was no choice. Now there is serious efforts going on. As in that story I posted, lots of auto makers are well aware of the needs of their customers..which could change depending upon fuel costs. Remember that during the strong economic boom of the late 1990s, oil prices were pretty low. The same is possible right now, imho. I am not a believer in OPEC's ability to keep prices under control. I think they got lucky in the last 2 years. Japan is pushing to make their government vehicles "green". I don't know what exactly that means--natural gas or electric? Once US consumption drops, it is all over for oil. Europe already has very small cars thanks to high "petrol" costs. The high costs(due to taxes) had lead to less consumption. OPEC just depends too much upon the US...but if the US consumers turn to fuel efficient or hybrid vehicles, that could be trouble. Of course the other force at work is that new exploration/production from US producers kicks in if prices are high. OPEC does not mind a spike to $30 oil but they would be insane to try and keep it there. jmho.