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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ChrisJP who wrote (42107)	3/20/2002 8:29:21 AM
From: LTK007	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

<Aging baby boomers will have to redeem stock to pay for their kids college educations before they retire.> good point.

To: ChrisJP who wrote (42107)	3/21/2002 2:39:29 AM
From: Psycho-Social	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Demographics and Secular Bull Market Peak: I used a different method, a kind of reverse engineering, to find the correlation between demographics and Market behavior. The idea was to find out what works, rather than what should work. My method has a topping out period extending into 2005, then a negative period as the rapid surge in the birth rate between 1945-47 works against the Market 60 yrs later. I've found that it's the balance between people entering their 40s and those entering their '60s and the momentum effect of that # that best approximates observed results, both here and in Japan. (Japan's final plateau in births ended in 1949. Their bull market ended in 1989.) In another 5 or 6 yrs we'll know how well this system works.