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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John F. Dowd who wrote (162572)	3/20/2002 9:06:38 AM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

It looks to be fine tuning estimates by Joseph. I am not reading as a very negative comment. As the stock approaches close to 30, we should be getting lots of buyers, imho

To: John F. Dowd who wrote (162572)	3/20/2002 9:49:00 AM
From: docpaul	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

The whole report, FYI.. Intel Corporation (INTC) INTC: Trim Estimates on Lower Seasonal Outlook 1M (Buy, Medium Risk) Mkt Cap: $216,628.6 mil. March 20, 2002 SUMMARY * While still early, we now believe Intel could record a SEMICONDUCTORS modest seasonal decline in Q2 revenues, in-line with the Jonathan Joseph 5-year average, which is a decline of about 3% qoq. In addition to Q2 being the seasonally weakest quarter of the year, Q2 will likely be impacted by a bookings correction Dunham Winoto as the P4 comes off allocation (most of which took place in Q1 and is incorporated in current quarter guidance), and flat (though not lower) Q2 prices due to April/May price cuts. * By our estimate, Q1 prices increased about 5% qoq, to the high $150 range, the first quarter in 2 years that prices have meaningfully trended upward. Given P4 price cuts averaging about 35% in April and May (with a few over 40%), we expect blended prices to remain flat in Q2. Intel has informed customers that 2H pricing will be more stable, suggesting few, if any, price cuts, which we believe will result in blended average prices rising another 10% in the last two quarters of the year. Continued below.. FUNDAMENTALS P/E (12/02E) 45.2x P/E (12/03E) 24.3x TEV/EBITDA (12/02E) NA TEV/EBITDA (12/03E) NA Book Value/Share (12/02E) $5.23 Price/Book Value 6.0x Dividend/Yield (12/02E) $0.08/0.3% Revenue (12/02E) $29,111.0 mil. Proj. Long-Term EPS Growth 25% ROE (12/02E) 10.0% Long-Term Debt to Capital(a) 2.8% INTC is in the S&P 500(R) Index. (a) Data as of most recent quarter SHARE DATA RECOMMENDATION Price (3/18/02) $31.62 Current Rating 1M 52-Week Range $35.79-$19.30 Prior Rating 1M Shares Outstanding(a) 6,851.0 mil. Current Target Price $45.00 Convertible No Previous Target Price $45.00 EARNINGS PER SHARE FY ends 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Full Year 12/01A Actual $0.16A $0.12A $0.10A $0.15A $0.53A 12/02E Current $0.15E $0.14E $0.19E $0.22E $0.70E Previous $0.14E $0.16E $0.19E $0.22E $0.72E 12/03E Current $0.23E $0.27E $0.37E $0.43E $1.30E Previous $0.27E $0.35E $0.40E $0.47E $1.50E 12/04E Current NA NA NA NA NA Previous NA NA NA NA NA First Call Consensus EPS: 12/02E $0.68; 12/03E $1.01; 12/04E NA OPINION: SUMMARY (CONTINUED) * We trimmed our Q2 revenue from $6.9 billion (flat qoq) to $6.7 billion (- 3%) and EPS from $0.16 to $0.14. We also trimmed our 2002 EPS from $0.70 to $0.72 on a 2.5% reduction in revenues to $29.1 billion (up 10%). We cut our 2003 EPS from $1.50 on revenues of $38.4 billion (+29%) to $1.30 on $36.6 billion (+26%). Out-year EPS was cut largely due to slightly slower revenues (0.08 per share), lower non-operating income ($0.08), and higher expenses ($0.04). * Despite the outlook for Q2 seasonal weakness, we continue to look for accelerating unit growth and rising prices through this year and next, contributing to a meaningful turnaround in earnings for the company. We retain our 1M (Buy) rating and $45 price target.