Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul V. who wrote (62196)	3/20/2002 2:25:30 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Paul, the 'article' you linked to is actually Michael Murphy's hype for his newsletter and, like all newsletter hype, to be ignored. Gottfried PS: I have no idea how useful MM's actual newsletter is these days.

To: Paul V. who wrote (62196)	3/20/2002 3:34:37 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 70976

Thanks for that article on QCOM. No, I hadn't seen it, I've stopped reading the QCOM thread, as the signal/noise ratio is too low. Too many people still (still!) in love with the stock. I'd have to label that article as 95% hype and hope (remember, I'm very long QCOM). Here's reality: 1. CDMA is at a competitive disadvantage until 3G gets installed. Before that (2G, 2.5G, 2.75G, 2.9G, etc.), the installed base is and will be mostly non-CDMA, and the entrenched powerful players (like Nokia) have a huge vested interest in not letting anyone get a proprietary lock on the global standard. 40% market share for CDMA with 2.5G (however you define that, and I've seen several different definitions) is a hopeful guess, nothing more. 2. The 3G buildout has recently stalled, due to the horrible balance sheets in telecom, and the drying-up of available capital. The only players who could, even potentially, do it, are the NotSoBabyBells. And they have a consistent track record of doing everything as slowly as possible, and only when forced to (that successful strategy has left them as the LastMenStanding. They are the tortoises that won the Telecom Race.). Since everyone else has slashed capital spending, there is even less pressure on the RBOCs to do buildouts to serve unproven markets. Those telecom balance sheets are not going to get fixed this year, or next. Maybe by 2004. Maybe. 3. In countries with a per capita income of 20,000$/Y, there might possibly be a market for wireless data services. Nothing is proven, there are no compelling (or even available) applications yet, but you can make a reasonable case that such a market could happen within the next 5 years. For countries with per capita incomes of 2000$/Y or 200$/Y (like India and China), the only wireless market is for voice. Now, in 5 years, probably still 10 years from now. And, for voice-only service, QCOM's CDMA is at a disadvantage. 3G is not going to happen in India, until it is built out, and proven over several years, in rich countries. IMO, there probably will be a huge increase in wireless (voice-only) use in poor countries. The graph of adoption vs. time is currently in the steep part of the S-shaped curve.