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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (62210)	3/20/2002 11:18:19 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

2 more months to a book-to-bill over 1 on the current uptrend? suite101.com Maybe three months. What are your thoughts? Thanks for keeping the charts going. Great work, RtS

To: Gottfried who wrote (62210)	3/20/2002 11:20:39 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Gottfried, As always, thanks for the charts. The outlook is starting to look much better - let's hope it continues and "hurries up about it!<gg> While perusing the web, I came upon the following which talks a little bit about what to expect tomorrow at AMAT's meeting, as well as other observations from Investment House.com Applied Materials (AMAT) Edward C. White, Jr.,CFA Preview of Thursday's Analyst Meeting 3 - Market Perform / 52.57 (USD) * At its analyst meeting this Thurs, we expect AMAT to present a strong case for how it will increase its mkt share and grow its revs in the next upturn. While we remain cautious on the shares over the ST due to cont'd weakness in the electronic end markets, we think AMAT is well positioned over the LT. * AMAT hosts its annual analyst day on 3/21. We expect AMAT will focus the lion’s share of its time on technological developments and LT growth drivers and more limited time on current business trends. * We see the company focusing on broad technological shifts (linewidth reduction, 300mm, & copper/low-k), new product offerings including “process module” approach, and its growing presence in China as the key growth drivers heading into the next upturn. * While we remain cautious on the shares over the ST, we believe AMAT is well positioned in key growth areas and is likely to outperform the industry in the next upturn which we believe will begin in earnest in early CY03. Semiconductor Capital Equipment Edward C. White, Jr.,CFA February ? Book-to-Bill * While we are encouraged that bookings continue to come in higher on a sequential basis, it is worth noting that orders are still 76% below peak levels reached in October 2000. Without meaningful signs that end-markets are turning, we find it difficult to model the strong 2H02 recovery that appears to be discounted into current stock valuations. As a result, we are retaining our overall cautious stance on the semiconductor equipment industry. * The SEMI preliminary book-to-bill ratio for February (3-mos avg) for U.S. based semiconductor equipment companies was 0.87, below our estimate of 0.93, and above January's revised 0.81. * Preliminary February orders equaled $712M, up 10% from revised January orders of $645M while billings rose 3% to $822M from $800M during the same period. * We see improving trends in bookings in 1Q02 vs. 4Q01, resulting in a higher book-to-bill ratio in March. More specifically, we expect orders will increase 10% sequentially in March and we estimate the book-to-bill ratio will increase to 0.94, as bookings improve at a faster rate than billings. Don