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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Cactus Jack who wrote (48862)3/21/2002 6:22:09 AM
From: stockman_scott  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232
 
In the last 48 hours I have made some big changes in my investing...

I was stopped out of all remaining positions in RSTN and INGN...I re-bought BRCD and initiated a nice position in a medical device firm (RITA) that has some great momentum...Beyond that I will keep a nice cash cushion...Later today I'm leaving town for a consulting project and a quick trip to Florida.

Hope everyone is doing well.

regards,

-Scott

btw, here's the RITA chart...

siliconinvestor.com



To: Cactus Jack who wrote (48862)3/21/2002 10:01:46 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232
 
energy and silver
crude oil is now over $25, just as I expected last November
the oil/gas sector is rolling nicely
however, this time I DO NOT expect crude oil to come back down
after most jumps, crude oil usually settles back
but this crisis seems longstanding in my view
Iraq, Iran, Columbia, Indonesia, Nigeria -- take your pick
these are all unstable areas

but more importantly, the Arab oilfields are gonna remain in the spotlight as hotspots for some time
AlQaeda will make certain of this
I personally think that oil/gas in NorthAmerican firms can be "played" for 5 straight years with huge returns
esp if you focus on small exploration "upstream" firms

here is an extremely important point on energy
since energy prices have come down, the prevailing opinion is that an energy shortage is a false fear story
how wrong, very off the mark
natural gas prices are way down, but should not be
crude oil has only begun to get away from "standard" supply/demand value
it has begun now to show some "risk premium" as it should
when the world's economies revive and recovery,
I EXPECT A MASSIVE ENERGY SHORTAGE AND BIG PRICE RISES
the world has it wrong, and will learn fast
we are in bigtime denial about energy shortages
watch China and all east Asia, whose demand is rising

I believe all precious metal stocks are extended now
their technicals indicate fatigue and stall
a minor pullback until Japan's Repatriation ends in two weeks
the extension appears to be marked by two clear flags
one is overbought, with stochastic over 80
two is poor relative strength, with one-month trend down
I refer to a few gold/silvers and the unhedged HUI index

in April, Japan begins anew its inexorable march into the abyss
they will surely sell JYen, buy dollars, and buy gold
their alternative is savings accounts earning 0.05%
that is not 5%, rather 1/20-th of 1% !!!
all with limits on saving acct guarantees
no protection beyond $75k in CD's now
no protection beyond $75k in passbook savings next year


/ Jim