To: Cactus Jack who wrote (48862 ) 3/21/2002 10:01:46 AM From: Jim Willie CB Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232 energy and silver crude oil is now over $25, just as I expected last November the oil/gas sector is rolling nicely however, this time I DO NOT expect crude oil to come back down after most jumps, crude oil usually settles back but this crisis seems longstanding in my view Iraq, Iran, Columbia, Indonesia, Nigeria -- take your pick these are all unstable areas but more importantly, the Arab oilfields are gonna remain in the spotlight as hotspots for some time AlQaeda will make certain of this I personally think that oil/gas in NorthAmerican firms can be "played" for 5 straight years with huge returns esp if you focus on small exploration "upstream" firms here is an extremely important point on energy since energy prices have come down, the prevailing opinion is that an energy shortage is a false fear story how wrong, very off the mark natural gas prices are way down, but should not be crude oil has only begun to get away from "standard" supply/demand value it has begun now to show some "risk premium" as it should when the world's economies revive and recovery, I EXPECT A MASSIVE ENERGY SHORTAGE AND BIG PRICE RISES the world has it wrong, and will learn fast we are in bigtime denial about energy shortages watch China and all east Asia, whose demand is rising I believe all precious metal stocks are extended now their technicals indicate fatigue and stall a minor pullback until Japan's Repatriation ends in two weeks the extension appears to be marked by two clear flags one is overbought, with stochastic over 80 two is poor relative strength, with one-month trend down I refer to a few gold/silvers and the unhedged HUI indexin April, Japan begins anew its inexorable march into the abyss they will surely sell JYen, buy dollars, and buy gold their alternative is savings accounts earning 0.05% that is not 5%, rather 1/20-th of 1% !!! all with limits on saving acct guarantees no protection beyond $75k in CD's now no protection beyond $75k in passbook savings next year / Jim