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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (156575)	3/21/2002 2:16:47 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Patron, what do you think about this: The Nasdaq 100 peaked in line with expectations for a March 4--8th top and a final decline into April. This has been detailed in the Weekly Re-Lay for the past month. The DJIA spiked to a slight new high - in perfect fulfillment of the corresponding analysis - before reversing lower. At the same time, the S+P 500 triggered short-term and intermediate-term sell signals late-last week and again on Monday. These are the first sell signals in many weeks and follow the two buy signals that set up in February. Timing is everything and we hope our patience with this evolving pattern will pay off additionally. Expectations for an S+P 500 drop from 1173.9 to 1130.0 in a matter of days also remains in force (as described in the 3/13/02 Weekly Re-Lay Alert). To repeat from the more recent 3/16/02 Weekly Re-Lay: "The Nasdaq 100 remains on track for a final intra-year low in April. It has two large groupings of cycles - combined with wave (timing) projections - during that month. The first is April 4--9th (with the 4/5th possessing the strongest synergy) and the second is April 22--25th. If it can reach new lows in early April, the second set of cycles is more likely to provide a higher low (as part of an advance into mid-year). Reinforcing this analysis, the NQM re-entered its weekly downtrend while providing two neutral signals to its daily uptrend. Monday's action needs a reversal back down to corroborate this scenario. To repeat from last week: "…this index needs a weekly close above 1589.5/NQM to neutralize its intra-year downtrend and signal that an intermediate low is taking hold. Until this signal is generated, the Nasdaq 100 is still vulnerable to a drop to one more intra-year low. The chance for new multi-year lows is diminishing but has not completely been eliminated." Looking out into mid-year, the 2-4 month outlook remains that the indices - particularly the DJIA - should see progressively higher highs into late-June-to-mid-July 2002. As stated before, there is even a small chance the DJIA could retest its all-time high in late July IF it holds above 9920 through April. Even if it does not quite reach 11,750, there is a strong 'value' area - extending up to 11,320--11,420/DJIA - that could attract this index in the coming months. The 2-4 week outlook also remains constant that these markets will see an intervening low in April. This is expected to be a new low in the NQ, a higher low in the DJIA and a chance - if it does not give a weekly close above 1176.2/SPM next week - that the SPM could set a double-bottom around 1076.5. This would still fit with the 'ideal' scenario described last week, since the Cycle Progression is based on a continuous weekly chart, needing the SP to bottom above 1073.8. While the Nasdaq 100 peak of March 4--8th should hold, the DJIA could easily spike to a quick new high before reversing lower. This is to be expected of the stronger market as it pushes cycle tops 'to the right'. Similar to past comments regarding price support and resistance for these trends, the DJIA is more likely to hold cycle lows and extend past cycle tops while the NQ is more likely to hold cycle tops and extend beyond cycle lows. This is normal action of up and down trends. Short-Term (1-5 day) Outlook: Stock indices reversed off their March 4--8th highs but have not yet been able to confirm them. The fact they gave two neutral signals to their daily uptrends - and then re-entered these uptrends - opens the possibility for a retest of their recent highs. Monday's action will clarify. The DJIA is at a critical juncture as it is 180 degrees - in both time and price - from its major low of September 21, 2001. Simultaneously, it is hesitating at its most important retracement point - the 2DGR (.786) of its May - Sept. 2001 decline… at 10,646/DJIA. At the same time, the SPM just hit and held its daily LHR. These factors continue to reinforce the idea that the DJIA will set an intervening peak at 10,679--10,786 before correcting into April. Look for daily closes below 10,468/DJIA, 1153.0/ SPM & below 1475.5/NQM as the second indication that a minor top is intact. Trading Strategies: Short-term traders should be selling the June mini-S+P contract up to 1169.5 and can even extend this selling range up to 1173.9/ESM. Also, alter the risk since a new week is beginning. Move buy stops higher and place them for the first half of the week at 1181.5 OCO a daily close above 1178.5/ESM. Intermediate traders can purchase April S+P 1120 put options from current levels up to 1181.0/SPM and risk two daily closes above 1181.0/SPM." [End 3/16/02 Weekly Re-Lay Stock Index analysis] [The SPM rallied to 1177.0 this week, triggering these signals but not getting near stop levels.] And to quote from yesterday's 3/20/02 Weekly Re-Lay Alert: "Stock Indices remain poised for an intervening low in April as part of an ongoing advance into mid-year. The NQM is the most bearish for the near-term and has good potential to drop below 1339.5. As reiterated on 3/16, it needed to give a daily close below 1475.5/NQM to confirm this. Considering that 1474.5/NQM was the HLS today, this level was even more important. The NQM closed below it, reversing its daily trend to down and confirming that a new wave down is unfolding. The SPM attacked weekly resistance and reversed lower. It needed a daily close below 1161.0 to neutralize its daily uptrend and reaffirm its potential for a 2-4 week correction. It gave it. It, too, attacked its daily HLS (1158.1/SPM) & closed below it… signaling a (near-term) downside breakout. A test of 1130.0/SPM is possible by/on 3/22. The DJIA spiked to a slight new high, consistent with its status as the stronger market and in line with analysis from the 3/16 Re-Lay. It has since turned lower and needed a daily close below 10,521 to confirm a near-term top. It accomplished this today. Short-term traders should have sold the June e-mini S+P contract at an average price of 1166.5 and should be holding these shorts, risking 1174.5 OCO a daily close above 1167.0/ESM. Intermediate traders should have purchased April SP 1120 put options at an average of about 8.50 and should now risk two daily closes above 1174.2/SPM." [End excerpt from 3/20/02 Weekly Re-Lay Alert] THE NEXT 3-5 DAYS ARE CRITICAL WITH REGARD TO THIS ANALYSIS. THE DAILY TREND COULD REVERSE TO DOWN AS EARLY AS TOMORROW (3/22), WHICH WOULD REINFORCE THIS SCENARIO (FOR THE S+P TO DROP TO 1076 IN A MATTER OF WEEKS)! Upcoming Alerts and the 3/23/02 Weekly Re-Lay will elaborate on this analysis, provided updated trailing buy stops (to exit short positions if/when the market bottoms on a near-term basis) and expound on the cycles coming into play in the upcoming weeks. However, these updates will only be sent to current Weekly Re-Lay subscribers. If you would like to renew now - and receive a FREE month of service when you do - please contact us for details. Thank you for your continued interest in our services. INSIIDE Track Trading // www.insiidetrack.com

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (156575)	3/21/2002 8:25:55 PM
From: JRI	Respond to of 436258

<Pam Anderson> Look like they need to update the VH1 "Motley Crue Story" now.... You seen pictures of Vince Neil lately...that guy's looking a mini-Orson Wells w/a bad L'Oreal job on top....amazingly, the chick he is dating looks exactly like the other 15 girlfriends he had over the past 20 years (excluding Pam).. "yeah sweetheart, our new album coming out in the fall...and Eninem is just dying to co-headline with us. Hey, whadda doin'...let's go to my hot tub". They got a blond, bimbo chick farm out there in Cali or sumpin'?