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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: westpacific who wrote (17193)	3/21/2002 4:46:05 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Hang on there Westie! I thought we were talking about Uncle Al. Way back in 1945, Al wasn't printing dollar bills. Since Uncle Al took over, there hasn't been much inflation at all. They aim for about 2 or 3% to keep some profits of control as well as printing more to keep up with global economic growth and demand for US$. I expect the next move [I've expected this for 3 years now] is a rapid improvement in the global economy and sharemarkets taking off [and especially the USA techstocks]. The New Paradigm is NOT over, contrary to early reports. When sharemarkets take off, Uncle Al will raise interest rates to avoid the US$ being abandoned too quickly which would cause a rapid decline in its value. I expect he will have to raise them quite rapidly once the process gets going. We are running a real-time 3D and cyberspace experiment with 6 billion actors and trillions of innocent biological bystanders on a little, wet, cloudy, blue planet in the middle of nowhere. Some people think we should dig up bodies from 1929 and ask them what was in their minds that caused them to put various P:E ratios on stocks and that we should do the same now. It beats me why the experiment we are running now should run on the same P:E as a totally different world with people living totally different lives from a century ago. History has gone! It is finished and we cannot dig it up. We will not repeat it either, no matter what we know or don't know. Those who fail to understand history are not condemned to repeat it and can't, [other than in a superficial way], even if they try. History is bunk! The future is what is coming, not the past. Coming ready or not; and you can't play hide and seek with It. It'll find you in the most remote Toran Boran cave. Mqurice

To: westpacific who wrote (17193)	3/21/2002 4:53:15 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 74559

<They will never be able to retire if they count on this system, or they will have to earn massive money and with China coming on the wages will never keep up> True! Contrary to popular rumour [in some quarters] an American is worth no more than an Indian or Chinese [or Kiwi for that matter] unless they have something of value to add. At the moment I'm hiring Americans [and those who immigrate to the USA] to do my QUALCOMM stuff. But QUALCOMM has got CDMA going in China now, including Research and Development. Unless Americans do as good a job as Chinese, I might as well hire all Chinese. What Americans need to do, and our wonderful hero, Uncle Al, has told citizens of Uncle Sam that they need to save. He means they need to form capital. If they don't form capital in great quantities, they will have to live on their labour. With 2 billion Chinese and Indians coming on stream, it is probably not that smart to live on one's labour. Americans [and everyone] needs to accumulate capital if they wish to have a higher standard of living than the cheapest competitors. There are other factors such as the political, legal, military systems which defend that capital - it's cheaper to hire Americans at 5 times the price of Indians because India might steal the capital or simply destroy it in a Moslem conflagration. Anyway, tell your little darlings to start saving flat out or start preparing to work for a lifetime for global pay rates, which will be lower than current USA salaries. Mqurice