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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (17209)	3/21/2002 10:51:17 PM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 74559

<Also, the socialisation of people is hugely different now, in modern urban worlds than 100 years ago when a fraction of the number of people were alive as now and they lived 80% in rural agricultural and small town ways. > Yes, hence it IS excusable that many well respected investors turned cautious way too early... and it makes sense that this bubble got bigger than anyone thought. <It really is different this time. It's different every time.> Except when you're talking about value.... what's NOT different is that people have once again become driven by the madness of crowds and have created a bubble... of course it IS different... look at all the differences from other bubbles! <Every day is a new day and nothing is ever the same.> Indeed, every moment.... new, and a new opportunity... long short, it matters not, we take what the moment has to offer. < I'm keen to test my ideas against other's ideas to see if there are missing links in my mind. > I think we've gone over this enough... you don't think prices paid matter, I do... especially for the S&P, it's HUGE, and the implied growth makes no sense to me... you see it different. <. So I consider the discussion not a matter of winning or losing, but of getting a good model of the world in my head. > Ahhh, but just remember the model changes every moment. <If my comments help others improve their models, all to the good. If they correct my ideas, that's even better.> I hear you and agree... I'll keep you up as my model changes :) However, at the moment my model says people arent' selling stocks simply because every one says you have to own them, not from ANY concious decision about future earnings, value, or any other thought out rational. In light of the current demographic, economic, and valuation situation my model says time is working AGAINST the market not for. Good weekend all. DAK

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (17209)	3/22/2002 5:55:56 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

The shape of the model people carry inside their minds today is much more different than 50 / 100 years ago. DNA can still be the same but that is what makes the real difference. Urbanization, mass communication, cheaper means of transport, etc contributed to this. 100 years ago in most of what is called today developed countries you had a priest telling a flock of Protestant people what they should do or how they should behave. The power that a person gets by knowing that his survival is not immediate at danger is also a powerful factor in shaping the minds of people over the last 100 years or so. Smug people is a very new brand of mindset. This didn't exist before!! Some people, the likes of Mq, Elmat or J. and others, know that some laws of nature have not changed just because the mindset of the masses have changed over these last 100 years.