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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (17219)	3/22/2002 9:32:34 AM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

LOL, not in the new economy dude!! -ggg- DAK

To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (17219)	3/22/2002 12:59:01 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Maybe this is nuts, but I'm sitting in the cave, with my crystal ball alight in front of me, at 5.30 am having been awake a while, hunting big game in cyberspace. They seem to roam cyberspace at night [here] so it's a good time to go hunting. Anyway, I thought I'd check BBR and there is DJ! Reading all my rant. So I better reward him with another one. You have missed the point; which is easy to do with my tortuous rants of course. <What Americans need to do... they need to save. Means, they spend less, means a corresponding contraction in GDP. Except iff: Government goes deficit big time - there's signs of it(*) - or iff the current account balance gets even more kinky as it's been. Still I cant see headlines like "J6P tightening his belt - GDP down 2.5 %" > When I say "saving" and forming capital, I don't mean just US$. What is essential is for Americans to save money, convert it to productive assets in India, China etc so that those people, who would love to have a better income, can join the productive, creative technological world and produce goodies and profits for Americans. That doesn't mean a decline in GDP - there is vast development needed in the Alien world. It would mean an economic boom as thousands of McDonalds, Boeings, airports, radar systems, optical fibres, and CDMA phone factories are built. If Americans just spend their money and their future on stupid consumer goods which just make them fatter and lazier, they will end up with no capital to live on and no competitive position compared with the lean and hungry Aliens who will accumulate capital and use mine and that of people from around the world. Capital is a competitive market too - the lowest cost capital gets the business. Uncle Al has lowered interest rates so that people spend their savings on consumer goods or investment assets [including education and research and development]. That'll get the economy moving fast! But as he says, if Americans simply eat instead of saving [creating capital and investing it], they will not do so well - they'll be like feudal serfs, ever in debt and working until they drop. Of course there are many consumer goods which are excellent purchases and are investments as they produce time [instead of dollar income] by saving time and enabling production and make life better [CDMA phones and DishDrawer dishwashers usa.fisherpaykel.com for example]. But slurping down another Big Mac with a bottle of Dom Perignon is not investment. "J6P invests in India - gets rich and retires! GDP roars up 10% per year for 10 years in a row". That's a better headline than "J6P eats himself into an early and large grave in poverty row". Spending on investing doesn't shrink GDP. Switching spending from end of the line products such as food, which turns into useless gastrointestinal waste products, to CDMA and other investments which will enable the other 6 billion people to improve productivity and profit doesn't cut GDP. Hobbitville has the same problem, but worse! Fat, dumb, lazy and happy is what you see here - no capital formation and declining GDP per capita compared with the real countries. We have only just got CDMA, but few are investing in it - just buying it. Mqurice