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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (9734)	3/22/2002 6:31:04 PM
From: isopatch	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

Yes. And NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) is also important. Roebear has done a lot of work on that and other weather influencing factors. So I gladly defer to him regarding any questions you might have. Suffice it to say that a combination of and other factors have been working in tandem to produce one of the colder March temperature patterns on record. The maps below are updated every day. But story has been more or less the same for weeks. Scroll down to Map #3 and you'll see how far below normal we are vs a more typical March at this point in the month. grads.iges.org Do you have any update or further thoughs on the Nuc Plant shutdowns now and as the year progresses? And there's also another factor, I've noticed in longer term NG demand, that we've not discussed. Except for the very heavy rain in the past day or two in the East/Central Appalachian states, reservior levels behind the many dams (believe there are 29) the TVA uses to generate hydroelectric power been certainly been impacted by the multi-year drought in most of the eastern US. Looked through the TVA web site. Perhaps I missed it. But although it mentions the drought, there's no reference, I could find there, to the obvious question about impact on generation capacity. Isopatch

To: russwinter who wrote (9734)	3/22/2002 8:42:36 PM
From: Roebear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

russ, El Nino is going to effect our weather this year. As a matter of fact, it's predicted onset was one factor in my winter forecast this year, as that onset over Dec-Feb along with other factors from corollary years indicated a late spring and protracted cold end to winter. BTW, the NAO, as iso mentioned, is currently negative, and is forecast to turn positive over next week, probably late in the week. Negative = cold for the eastern US. Throwing some interesting curves into the weather next week is a Mongolian Dust Storm which will likely increase our fine particulate count in a few days. Some interesting pictures and an article from the US embassy in China about this latest Dust Bowl follow (cancel the request for Chinese translation and it will load in English): usembassy-china.org.cn Unfortunately my weather system failed when it came to Jan/Feb, so I am not going to make any forecasts until I have it repaired to a more reliable status, which will take some time. I will note as a probability, not a forecast, that the spring shoulder season may be shorter than normal this year. Best Regards, Roebear