[madtrader]
Fri Mar 22, 9:57am PST $VIX.X
$VXN.X
Both dropping to a new 2 year low today. VIX is back to a teenager again as I suggested before. I am not taking this too lightly, mind you. I am sure a lot of fuss will be made over the weekend about this. I can just picture all kinds of new justifications about why VIX has dropped so low (one popular take is the fact convertibles have been flooding the market, etc. I don't buy it though). Either way, I think people are prepared for the consequences, since the issue of VIX has been in the spotlight for a while now. none.
[madtrader]
Fri Mar 22, 9:51am PST GE
It's almost comical to watch how the Street circle the wagon on this one. Yesterday I went long GE at the "depth of despair", when CNBC was still replaying the Bill Gross story over and over again (don't you just get tired of how media like to jump on a story and play it to the death?). As expect, GE management came out blasting, defending their "good" name today. Of course, making the Street back to their senses. Of course the stock does the obligatory upturn. Let me tell you, this business sure requires a lot less imagination than Hollywood! already long.
Register for our newsletter
[madtrader]
Fri Mar 22, 9:43am PST $OEX.X
BTW, the intraday high yesteday and the high today (thus far at least) is the 50% retracement level from Tuesday's close to yesterday's lows. So I would expect the market to meander around here. It's Friday, no need to force the issue. Otherwise, the next upside target is the 62% retracement level of 585. none.
[madtrader]
Fri Mar 22, 9:34am PST $BKX.X
$OEX.X
BKX continue to march higher, and OEX has just cracked 582.75. Looking to see if it can take out yesterday's high of 583.43. If it can, we should see some serious fireworks ahead. none.
[madtrader]
Fri Mar 22, 9:32am PST $VIX.X
PFCB
EXPE
Haha, that's real funny Rumordude thought he will get in trouble with me here. Some people out there thought we are a trading team of some sort. In reality we trade our own accounts, and this is a fun space to share thoughts. I know I have made my case on VIX over and over again in the past. So I won't bore you with my old argument. And I certainly don't want to intimidate Rumordude with it! :) Anyhow, EXPE and PFCB are two great momentum names. In the case of EXPE, it has just broken out, so I would expect more upside to come. Although I will confess I have a tough time "trading" these type of names. They are the IBD cult names. That said, I think if there is a lesson learned from the last 5 years is that regardless the market condition, whether it is raging bull or a vicious bear. If ain't broken, don't fix it! Or more explicitly, with names like EXPE or PFCB, unless they have a blow-off top type of vertical run with massive volume, it is just too tough to anticipate a top. Much like early days of dotcoms (I still remember AMZN wiped out a bunch of hedge funds in 1998 as they tried to short it based on valuation), these stocks have a mind of their own due to the thin float. It would be much more profitable to trade on the long side (I know some will say that is greater fool stuff again) than throwing money to the short side. As for VIX? Well, until it does a meaningful reversal, I think it has cost people enough money already. Anyhow, this has been a good week for traders. Although the market hasn't done much, but it certainly hasn't lost much. A nice pause for the coming earnings confession season. As the end of quarter and month ticks closer, if we continue to mark time early next. Watch out for performance anxiety to force the fund managers to do some panic buying, for most of them have underperformed the tape this quarter. none.
[madtrader]
Fri Mar 22, 9:19am PST WMB
ED
SO
I wasn't sure if I should put these names in this space. Being a trader, I usually don't bother looking at utilities. But these names, and the DOW Utility index showed up in my various end of day scans over and over yesterday. I couldn't help but notice their fantastic chart patterns. I am perhaps most impressed by WMB. A stock that has had it's share of Enronitis lately. But what a fantastic cup with a handle pattern it has built. And a small breakout from the handle yesterday. My only grip is the lack of impressive volume. I suppose I can see myself wanting to go long with these. If you are a more patient trader than me, these are great longs for the next few weeks. none.
[RumorDude]
Fri Mar 22, 9:14am PST PFCB
EXPE
These two totally different issues have some serious uptrends in place. While I am not jumping in to short either of them, they're certainly on the 'watch for break' short list. Using the ADX as an indicator of trend strength, EXPE looks like it would be first to fail while PFCB could move a bit further still. none
[RumorDude]
Fri Mar 22, 9:08am PST $SPX.X
$VIX.X
I know I'm going to get myself into all sorts of trouble with madtrader here, but when I look at the $VIX.X, I get nervous. Then I throw in past few failed attempts to cross through 1170 on the SPX, and the problems we're having here at 1150 and I get more nervous. Then I look over some of the bigger revenue movers like the BA's, CAT's, GM's, and I don't really like the charts. And, lastly I look at my holdings and see there is not much short stuff left. So it's time for me to start balancing things out a bit better. Buy to open May 1100 $SPX.X puts |
