To: Casaubon who wrote (5467 ) 6/14/2002 12:37:59 PM From: CH4 Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 6016 Greenhouse Follies: Prosperity and fertility lie at the root of global warming, but no one agrees on the best fix By Rodger Doyle April 24, 2002 A quick and sure way to slow global warming is to arrange a really deep depression like the one that occurred in eastern Europe after the breakup of the Soviet empire. As the bottom left chart shows, such disintegration resulted in a steep decline in carbon dioxide emissions in that region. This episode illustrates that prosperity is a driving force behind the growing level of greenhouse gases. As incomes rise, people increasingly spend their money on autos, air-conditioning and other energy-intensive technologies, thus contributing to global warming. Rising population is another prime contributor. Had population not changed since 1950, carbon emissions would now be 40 percent of their current level. Of course, the world community will not be reducing the population or striving to cap prosperity. Instead it has focused on getting international agreements to lower emissions. The latest effort in this direction, the Kyoto Protocol, would set legally binding national targets for emission reductions. The Kyoto process, however, is in trouble, because not all countries (notably, the U.S.) will ratify it. Other efforts--such as the U.S. movement to impose higher mileage standards on sport-utility vehicles and the European Union plan to levy a tax on energy--have floundered. In the absence of political action, many governments and private organizations have pinned their hopes on renewable sources of energy. The hydrogen fuel cell promoted by the Bush administration may not be a viable, near-term alternative to the internal-combustion engine because of its cost. Wind, solar, geothermal and biomass power now account for perhaps 2 percent of global energy needs and could supply 10 to 20 percent by midcentury. The one reasonably sure way to cut emissions substantially over the next 50 years or so is through a massive proliferation of nuclear power plants. Expansion of nuclear power, which currently provides about 5 percent of the world's energy, is unlikely at this time in view of public distrust. In any case, it would take perhaps 40 years to build a sufficient number of plants to supply half of U.S. energy needs. China and India, the principal polluters among developing nations, would presumably take longer to hit the 50 percent mark. What will happen if no serious effort is made to curtail fossil-fuel emissions? The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has tried to answer the question by making a projection of emission levels through 2100 based on the assumption that fossil fuels will continue to supply most of the world's energy. The bottom right chart shows this calculation, along with two more optimistic scenarios. Such projections are, of course, no more than informed guesswork. SOURCES: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center at Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Emissions Scenarios, 2000: Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The Author(s): Rodger Doyle can be reached at rdoyle2@adelphia.netsciam.com ... complete with nice charts SIDEBAR: NEED TO KNOW: WHO'S SPEWING? World Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuels Nation ... % of world emissions ... Emissions/capita U.S. ... 24% ... 5.4 metric tons China ... 14% ... 0.7 metric tons Russia ... 6% ... 2.7 metric tons Japan ... 5% ... 2.5 metric tons India ... 5% ... 0.3 metric tons Germany ... 4% ... 2.8 metric tons Canada ... 2% ... 4.2 metric tons U.K. ... 2% ... 2.5 metric tons South Korea 2% ... 2.2 metric tons Italy ... 2% ... 2.0 metric tons France ... 2% ... 1.7 metric tons Mexico ... 2$ .... 1.1 metric tonssciam.com ... original Of course there's another more practical option to "... massive proliferation of nuclear power plants." That option is massive proliferation of Solid Oxide Fuel Cells over the next 50 years ... unfortunately it appears that some folks don't really care, and are only focussed on 'what's it in for me syndrome'. I hate to say it but unless we collectively start to support economically viable alternative energy developments, it won't really matter how much commission one pays, TD Waterhouse ain't going to be around long enough to spend it. However there is help on it's way ... question is; will there be enough GLE product before 2012; the year ancient Mayans predict Mother Earth will rise and cleanse herself of all that has put her out of balance.