Butch, my son. I'm not in to the paper parts of all this, nor the number crunching, but I'll tell you how your ol'dad thinks, re metals. A lot of this goes back to the late 70's, when we had stagflation, and coincidentally was the brief period of time between starting to save $ and when my ex moved in with the boys and we bought the farm, literally. I was sort of molded by Howard Ruff, who I may have discovered thru MOther Earth News, or just happened to be the first book I saw. I'm not here to defend or knock Ruff or any other goldbug doomsayer types..Ruff was just the guy I found, and a lot of it made sense. The book was written when inflation was in double digits, and some folks were thinking run-away, post WWI Germany inflation (stories where that you needed to go shopping with a wheelbarrow to carry your money, and that my brother farmers were exchanging bushels of potatoes for the richie's pianos).
I believe his recommendations were something like :store food (I believe the Mormans do that); get country property and tools, etc (I wasn't influenced by that at all; I started looking for something in the hills 6 months after I started working, because my area was just getting too crowded for me ). Then, aside from the usual advice, and I think he said debtors made out well because they paid back in cheaper dollars, he said get metals as a fall back position; silver, then gold, and he preferred coins because of liquidity. Finally, I am not sure exactly when in his plan, he talks about numismatic metals and ultimately gems, the latter because of their portability for refugees.
OK, so much for his plan. I grew up around coins; my grandfather was badly bitten by the collecting virus, had stamps, coins, insects, books, and a few odds and ends like arrowheads, and my uncle was a mail order coin dealer (I could never figure out if he was inept or corrupt...I tend to think he was just inept, but I digress). My grandfather started coin collections for each of us at birth; full set of Wash. quarters etc. I still have mine, more for sentimental value than collecting; I chose stamps for my hobby (and, small time, insects).
Anyway, I viewed coins as a way to make money, not a hobby. My bro and I used to get the parking meter money from the city, and pull out the good stuff and sell it to dealers.No sentimental attachment to the coin itself, except we did save the rare dates.
Anyway,I bought as many silver dollars as I could afford. Stashed them in the bank; they are still there. Also, my dad gave me numismatic gold, which is still there. As Dad said, "save this for emergencies". I think the silver is worth less than when I bought it, and, if you figure the safe-deposit fees, I have lost money. So? If the fit hits the shan, I have tangible metal, traditionally accepted everywhere Visa isn't, to get me thru. (Ruff talked about the price of lettuce being something like 10K paper {"Green frog skins"...Black Elk} or one silver quarter...absolutely out of control freight train runaway inflation).
I am still thinking about all this, coincidentally at a time when I finally got the divorce paid off and have money to burn, which is probably all it will be good for under Silverback's scenario...funny, you can't eat gold and you can't even start a fire with it, but it has been a constant thruout recorded history, right up to Japan today. I'm really tempted to start buying junk silver (the stuff in your pocket, only silver, like it used to be), this time from the profit end. I probably don't meet Ruff's guidelines for how much silver to keep, but I am getting old
and have land and an orchard and berries and deer and wild turkeys and my own water, so I don't need as much; besides, my boys are grown and have their own places, so I don't have to worry as much about providing security for them; truth be known, I may end up depending on them, jaja. Last time silver ran, I got in after it started; a tiny bubble, except for the Hunt Bros,jaja. It might well be time to get in.
Incidentally I found 2 silver dimes and a wheat penny in my change in the last 3 months, so keep yer I's open and cross yer tees. Also knew a guy in the '70's who would buy silverware at the auction for cheep cheep cheep and melt them down. Seems nobody wanted the stuff 'cuz it wasn't their initials on the spoons.
Sorry for the digital diarrhea.
Sundance |
