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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: edward miller who wrote (12959)	3/23/2002 10:56:40 AM
From: kodiak_bull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

Ed, Joe is not Battapaglia but Kernen on CNBC. Funny thing, day before they were dumping on the falling homeboys, one rally and whazzup hoo hah. I think CTX could get above the 50 DMA one more time, complete the right shoulder and then lead the charge down. BZH (and a host of others) show the same pattern: stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUe12,26,9!Lh14,3]&pref=G Otoh, Dabum has had a remarkable record in counseling patience with many stocks and I'm more than happy to be patient here. Here's tsc.com's pretty balanced take, along with a couple of summary paragraphs: thestreet.com "But "the fact is, this is still a cyclical industry [and] still affected by rising interest rates, which raise the price of [buying a] house -- any way you slice it," Allen said. Average rates on fixed 30-year and 15-year mortgages have risen notably in recent weeks in conjunction with the bond market's decline, which was resuming at midday today. Those touting the homebuilders' ability to withstand rising interest rates have short memories, Allen quipped. After rates rose in 1994, all but three of 11 companies for which she was able to confirm data reported declining earnings in 1995. All three that did have increases, D.R. Horton (DHI:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis), Lennar (LEN:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis), and Toll Brothers, posted lower-than-expected results. More tellingly, "virtually every stock fell 50%, hitting book value or less," and the market made "no discernible difference" between companies that posted earning gains and those that underperformed, she noted. (Furthermore, as impressive as recent earnings for players such as K.B. Home (KBH:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis) and Lennar have been, think how much tougher the comparisons are going to be going forward.) Allen currently has "reduce" recommendations on D.R. Horton, Lennar, Toll and K.B. Home, and "neutral" recommendations on Centex (CTX:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis), Pulte Homes (PHM:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis) and Standard Pacific (SPF:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis). Arnhold & S. Bleichroeder has not done underwriting for, and Allen holds no positions in, any of the aforementioned. "With each new report showing greater-than-expected strength in the economy, the risks in owning these stocks rise," she wrote in a recent report. "We continue to recommend selling any that are valued at two times book; when the prices drop to book value and below, we expect to be aggressive buyers." Kb