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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (2372)	3/23/2002 10:49:57 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95561

RtS, you said >What far too many people here (at Silicon Investor) seem to misunderstand is that although these stocks are overvalued by virtually every standard of fundamental analysis they are also the only game in town for technology investors looking to cash in on predictable returns to profitability.< Total agreement. It is disillusioning to me how many investment gurus fall into that same valuation trap. Even Mr Neff, who stated in Barron's he was short AMAT back in January when it was in the low forties. Yes, it's valued higher than it has been historically, but I don't think that will change now when SEMI orders are finally increasing and AMAT brass has stated they see it as entirely possible that cycle peak earnings will exceed those of the last cycle. Gottfried

To: Return to Sender who wrote (2372)	3/24/2002 7:41:40 AM
From: JSLyons	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95561

Hi RtS, You can count me in, too. "Valuation" as bandied about on CNBC and in the general financial press is a virtually useless concept. (In fact, I would put it down there with "diversification" as another piece of investing "misdirection" for the masses, but that is a different story.) Let's look at it this way: The quality semi-equips and leading niche players in the sector offer the only game in town for a reliable revenue stream in the future. The only questions for the investor are: how much will you pay today for that revenue stream in the future; and what else might you do with your money, ie opportunity cost, while you wait. With real interest rates at or near historic lows, the latter question takes care of itself. Likewise, the changes in accounting standards and revenue recognition issues are just so much noise -- the money is there in the pipeline and the only question is when to put it down on paper as "revenue." Frankly, slower revenue recognition and the temporary high "valuations" they appear to mean for our sector has given us a nice window in which to accumulate shares for the next run-up. I agree with Cary, I think these non-issues may well produce a pull-back as the CNBC talking heads warn that semi-equips are now "pricey on a valuation basis," whatever that means. Does that change the scope or value of the coming revenue stream? Clearly not. While I am already heavily invested in a basket of 10 semi-equips and compound-semis (for the record, KLIC is my top holding, followed by ATMI), I will add more on any real weakness. Best rgds, Jonathan