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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LTK007 who wrote (43464)	3/23/2002 8:52:58 PM
From: LTK007	Respond to of 99280

also this shows well why ZEEV sticks to one chart source for a measure for as i have discovered different chart sources do NOT use same measures. One can see the RSI measures on YHOO are NOT compatible with Stockcharts. They have at least a ten point divergence in their measuring.

To: LTK007 who wrote (43464)	3/23/2002 9:52:45 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 99280

Jack Krupansky's Daily Market Perspective technologyinvestor.com Early Saturday, March 23, 2002: (will be updated for Monday) Friday was another slow day for the markets. The decline was disappointing, but it was modest enough and volume was light enough that it can be ignored. Sure, there was some negative news, but nothing too substantial and the market response wasn't too extreme. A simple reading of the market is that a few momentum traders jumped on the bandwagon Thursday, but then jumped off on Friday as there was no follow-through to the rally. Also, traders don't like to carry positions over the weekend. The weekly Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) Weekly Leading Index (WLI) rose moderately. This was a positive report. The WLI is now only very slightly below the level it reached in the the third week of January which was the highest level in the past year. The six-month smoothed growth rate also rose nicely. There is clear a rising trend firmly supporting the economy. The CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX), which measures the level of anxiety in the market, FELL by 2.10% on Friday to 19.56, which is near the top of the low anxiety zone (15 to 20). We haven't been at this level since September 2000. And this drop in anxiety occurred on a day when the market declined. There is no way that the cynics will treat this as anything other than a dangerous excess of overconfidence and that's probably at least part of why the market sold-off a little. VIX is usually a contrarian indicator with low values suggesting that a market decline is ahead. But, I said USUALLY. We're in the middle of a turning point where the majority of market participants do not know what to think. But it's also a great time to buy (or sell) if you really do feel you know what's going to be happening in coming months. The fundamentalists have lousy earning staring them in the face, at least for the next month. The macro-economic guys are envisioning a very strong economy in a few months, regardless of what is happening right now. The people who trade VIX are usually a bit more sophisticated than most, and probably think that the economy will be firming, but that earnings will be ramping at a more subdued pace, causing stocks to trend up, but at a rather moderate pace. Ultimately, VIX is about volatility and a lower VIX means the market will have lower volatility, with less chance of either a decline or a gain. That's the theory. So much that happens in the market (including VIX) is a "vision" of what's coming tempered by a concern for what we'll be dealing with in the near-term. The bottom line is that VIX is not at some dangerous level that would suggest a significant decline ahead. I like to follow VIX because I know a lot of the pros do, but I also know that it's not always a reliable indicator of future market activity. <gg>On the question about my handle. I like the song and the idea of making a decent return on my investments. RtS