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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (2379)	3/24/2002 12:42:54 AM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95561

Cary, I suspect that the Jim Morgan "over ripe bananas" concept will lead to more capacity being ordered than is implied by most short term forecasts. The impact of new accounting rules on BTB will have differing impacts at different points in the cycle. Now while the chip sector is in recession, technology buys delay shipments becoming revenue by several months. ONce the capacity buys resume, most, if not all, of the lag should disappear. ... until the next overcapacity / demand shortfall recurs. Ian

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (2379)	3/24/2002 1:20:49 AM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 95561

Cary, I hear you >Since shipments have been declining each month for a while, the billing decline has been slowed by the lag and the result is that billings reflect shipments a few months ago which were higher than current shipments.< and you've convinced me RtS is right about btb being lower now than it would have been without the new revenue recognition method. The opposite will be true after shipments have risen for a few months: recognized revenue will be held lower because of previous months lower shipments - so btb will be higher longer. Very confusing to me. A few months from now it should be a moot point, though, because we will no longer compare to pre-change periods. I'm not so sure that analysts don't realize the upturn will be slow. It seems I see that sentiment everywhere. To me it's at least equally likely they're now under-estimating it. But I do not really know. Gottfried

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (2379)	3/24/2002 9:10:47 AM
From: scott_jiminez	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95561

Perspective. Despite a degree of arrogance that implies some sort of expertise, we've finally been able to test whether Cary's opinions really are any better than the slovenly hoi-polloi (everyone else) he so often lectures. A couple months back Cary listed his favorite stocks in the semiconductor universe (on the 'Blood-in-the-streets' thread, I believe). At the same time he was was dissing most other semi stocks. He specifically derided a participant for suggesting that Cymer (CYMI) might be an excellent buy at the time by responding, 'I certainly would not (buy it)!'. In response to such behavior, I created 2 portfolios, Cary's (http://www.siliconinvestor.com/portfolio/detail.gsp?pid=9294759) and Cary's...NOT (http://www.siliconinvestor.com/portfolio/detail.gsp?pid=9294760), the latter consisting of the stocks that Cary explicitly or implicitly scorned. Results to date: Cary's...NOT: +13.4% Cary's: +12.2% And which stock is the best performing of the 16 in the two portfolios? CYMI, up 34.9%. ===================== As is common to the vast majority of self-proclaimed biotech 'mavens' on SI, Cary is but one more example, and one more stark lesson, that arrogance and insight are two very different, and often mutually exclusive, traits. So when Cary tells us what he expects for the sector, suggesting he understands the effects of the accounting changes etc. better than the analysts, keep his track record, not his attitude, front and center. Such an approach will may very well spare you from missing out on a spring rally in the equipment sector.