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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (58623)	3/24/2002 2:01:57 AM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 77400

Jacob, since you asked: my YE2002 CSCO prediction of $29 was a WAG made on 12/31/01 when CSCO was $18+. There was no FA to back it up. Message 16845512 Gottfried

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (58623)	3/24/2002 1:12:06 PM
From: JeffT	Respond to of 77400

Just a quick response now, and would like to discuss more with you later. I think Cisco can receive a 2X PE multiple for the nature of the company and its growth prospects. Also it is one of the few high tech's making real money so it is considered the safer of many tech stocks so a 2X premium is reasonable I think. If we assume a 25% growth rate with a PE of 25, then it is reasonable for Cisco to have a PE ratio of 50. By the end of the year I am hopeful that we will be looking out to 2004 and see profits that would justify an expected .50 to .60 per share profit (maybe on a pro-forma basis which so many hate to use). That is a stab at answering your question. The main idea I am using is that when the investment community believes that Cisco will be looking at real growth again they will respond with a lot of pent-up demand for the stock, and cause a very quick advance to the $25 to $30 area. It will not happen slowly. The advance will be fast. Then we will start a new basing period in that range as the market waits and sees again. I realize I am making many assumptions here, and that there is considerable doubt, and dispute, if they will materialize. That's investing! Jeff