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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RR who wrote (48929)	3/24/2002 12:21:30 PM
From: elpolvo	Respond to of 65232

rr- i need to start laying a few eggs myself. Now to figure a way to keep the snakes out. Any ideas, Folks? there are two schools of thought on this... 1) don't put all yer eggs in one basket. 2) put all yer eggs in one basket, then WATCH that basket. good morning to you sir. -polvo

To: RR who wrote (48929)	3/25/2002 11:50:32 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

beginning to conclude the entire US economy is now a bubble interested in your view from 1990 to 2002, US Money Supply rose 90-95% corporate debt rose something like 60-70% consumer debt rose something like 80-90% now govt debt is expected to rise steadily reports of govt surplus were just accounting shenanigans in late 1990's they took from SocialSecurity Funds very little surplus if they were forbidden to do so but I would rather pay off some fed debt costing 6% than earn a measly 2% in shorterm maturity, eh? real estate values rose about 100% S&P rose about 100% not sure personal wealth changed much except for Robt Rubin the tech bubble (and interior dotcom bubble) is now clear it has come apart with a bang but do you believe a credible argument can be made that the tech malinvestment-based bubble has merely shifted to real estate, with the aid of the lowered Fed rates and accommodation ??? I am beginning to think so, a new bubble mortgage rates ticked up 1/4 of 1% in the last couple weeks we have a habit of dismissing energy-based inflation we do so by separating it from core CPI readings I wish I could separate my gasoline and heating and electricity bills from claims of savings a credible argument can be made that most consumer spending since October (mainly Q4) was originated from tax cuts and added consumer debt your thoughts are welcome sure, housing is more stable than stocks just read that 1% rise in property values results in twice as much spending than a 1% rise in stock portfolios we in our economy are vulnerable to a slide in real estate prices prices are vulnerable to mortgage rates and unemployment what say ye about bubbles transferring locations? and about our bubble economy? we now are reading about more backtracking with respect to 1990's growth and productivity funny accounting and poor govt calculations helped along such false premises thanks, Jim