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To: Jon Koplik who wrote (115931)3/24/2002 9:59:57 PM
From: Robin Plunder  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 152472
 
Jon, here is an interesting comment on a railroad induced panic in 1906-7, from 'Reminiscences of a Stock Operator' by Edwin Lefevre:

"A few days later St. Paul very kindly came out with an announcement of of an issue of its own; either stock or notes, I forget which. But that doesn't matter. What mattered then was that I noticed the moment I read it that the date of payment was set ahead of the Great Northern and Northern Pacific payments, which had been announced earlier. It was as plain as though they had used a megaphone that grand old St. Paul was trying to beat the two other railroads to what little money there was floating around in Wall St. The St. Paul's bankers quite obviously feared that there wasn't enough for all three and they were not saying, 'After you, my dear Alfonse!' If money already was that scarce - and you bet the bankers knew - what would it be later? The railroads needed it desperately. It wasn't there. What was the answer? ....Sell 'em, of course!" (page 98)

Probably there are some interesting parallels here to our current situation, with the telecoms locked out of the financial markets. If we follow Jesse Livermore, it is time to go short....

Robin