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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elmer who wrote (75525)	3/25/2002 1:45:21 PM
From: hmaly	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Elmer Re...You misunderstood. I meant AMD was producing at a rate of half the Fab30 capacity, assuming "World Class Yields" as Jerry told us and Jerry never lies, right? What did I misunderstand. AMD is producing at half capacity, at world class yields, and we know this because Jerry or Hector never lies. If you know Jerry never lies, why are you assuming he is? You once again are trying to say, " If AMD started producing .13 Tbred 13 wks ago, and we know the production cycle takes 13 wks, we should have seen the Tbed already. However, that 13 wks is for an established process. It takes awhile to validate and iron out the wrinkles in any process, as well as build up a supply sufficient to meet original demand. How much longer does that take? As for the rest, you obviously can't run the numbers on Intel's fabs because you don't know how they are loaded or what the die sizes are.<<<<< Why can't we? There are 2 fabs putting out P4,rated at a specific wafer capacity, at a definite die size. You stated that "there was more demand than Intel could supply in Q4" which implies Intel was running at capacity; otherwise Intel could have supplied more. Or are you trying to say, Intel was silly enough to target their production runs too low, so Intel could have supplied more, but was too inept to judge demand correctly. In fact, Intel is so inept, Intel also built another 3 superfabs, while their other fabs were running at partial capacity. Is that really the message you want to convey? No one can. That's the point so you obviously can't assume low yields.<<<<< That certainly hasn't stopped you from making those exact same prognostications about AMD's yields, given you yourself have less of an idea of AMD's loading and die sizes, than you would have of Intel's.