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To: Les H who wrote (1677)	3/25/2002 4:42:47 PM
From: Challo Jeregy	Respond to of 29596

would that be your April 19 date? Message 17236694

To: Les H who wrote (1677)	3/25/2002 6:42:17 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29596

What to expect now. March 25, 2002. Ord. We are going into month end and a potential rally called "Window Dressing" is the name of the game. This period is also "quarter end" and may have an effect on the "Window Dressing" rally. Don't get us wrong, we are not bullish here but a potential bounce is still possible over the next several days. We are not betting on the bounce here but if a bounce does materialize, a high probability trade to the downside would develop. The "McClellan Summation Index" has rolled over to the downside and implies the trend has turned down. The VIX is extremely low and very bearish. Another indicator we watch is called "Total Market New highs/New lows" and is bearish. When this indicator gets over 200 the market is at a top and this happen about a week ago. The indicator has gotten over 200, 6 times in the last three years and have marked top in each instance. We will see if this "Window Dressing" period can rally the S&P for the short term. If it does rally, we will look to short the S&P. Staying flat for the moment. The NDX may bounce here also as "Window Dressing" has the same effect on this index. The downtick readings on the Nasdaq reached -915 today. The last two times the downtick readings reached near this extreme came on February 21 (-1001 downticks, day before the Bottom) and March 13 (-804 downticks, Flip the market sideways for 4 days). Therefore, because of the over 900 downtick reading today, you can expect a sideways move if not a pop up for the short-term. This adds to the "Window Dressing" Rally theory. There are two gaps open on the NDX and we have found when two gaps are left open there is likely development of a "Third Gap" forming the will mark the end of the down move. This pattern is called a "Three Gap Play". If a "Third Gap" materializes near term and is a big gap, we will cover the remaining short position in the QQQ. Were short a 1/2 position in the QQQ at 36.80, we took off 1/4 position today at our 3:30 Eastern update at 35.60 for a 3.3% gain. We are now holding 1/4 position short with a stop at 38.00 The XAU appears to have broken out above the February 8 high and is a bullish sign. The Weekly and months charts remain bullish. The monthly charts imply Gold is in a powerful "wave 3" up in Elliott Wave terms and therefore, pull back or not the bigger picture is very bullish. We liked ASA near 23 (hit 23.10 on March 8), closed today at 28.61. We liked HL near the level 1.40 area (were near or below that level for a month), closed today at 1.90. We liked Drooy near 2.05 to 2.15 and 2.21 was the lowest seen for the last several weeks, closed today at 3.27. We like AEM near 11 to 10.50 and the recent low was 11.25, closed today at 13.35. If you have a longer-term horizon, it is not too late to buy gold stocks. marketweb.com