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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lachesis Atropos who wrote (36575)	3/26/2002 10:56:26 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 68092

Hi Lawrence, It is good to hear from you. As far as I can tell, traders will take a wait and see attitude. I don`t expect them to take larger positions till the July time frame. The recovery is supposed to be in the second half of the year and some traders will try to get a jump on that. September will be the start of back to school buying in computers and teenage clothing. It will also start the early ramp into a general run up in retail for the Christmas season (this includes electronic games). On the telecom side, the ONIS pre-announcement has hinted to the fact carriers have basically frozen the cap ex till the second half of the years. They are essentially waiting for signs of a re-bound before they spend any more than the absolute basics. Locally, Telus is only seeing new businesses install the rock bottom in services. There is a lot of grey market equipment floating around also. Surprising they are selling a lot of older switches to telcos in the US. Most of it appears to be for rural areas. I don`t think we break 1740 to the downside as the fundamental back drop appears to be improving. Inventories are dramatically reduced so companies that saw their sales almost drop to zero will return to more normal run rates. That in itself will make Y-Y comparisons look better. I went the the local COMDEX show last week. The trade floor was down quite a bit from previous years. Even MSFT had a greatly reduced presence at the show. It sure looks like companies are still keeping a tight rein on marketing expenses.