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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: carranza2 who wrote (19143)3/26/2002 1:40:05 PM
From: Eric L  Respond to of 34857
 
re: << Spin ... >>

Is when ...

... for whatever purpose ...

... one changes "millions" ...

... to "millions and millions".

<< What the [expletive deleted] was this exchange all about, then? >>

It appears that back in June I apologized to you and the board for duplicating a post (which I edited out with the explanation."DUP My apologies") ... which I guess goes to show that on occasion, I am capable of delivering an apology, but not when one spins millions into millions and millions ...

This is the post made 4 minutes after the first and which was left standing (after DUP removal) in response to your Qualcomm commercial:

Message 16004006

In that post I made this statement:

A slide from the recent CEO Road Show showed 5% of handsets (can't remember if that was units or $) said that GPRS shipments would approximate 5% of total.

I just went back to look at that slide which was titled "Packet Switching Penetrates Quickly The Subscriber Base".

The slide actually projected unit "Annual Terminal Volumes By Phone Generation" (2G, 2.5G, 3G WCDMA) and it showed 2.5G Packet switched phones (which in Nokese would include 1xRTT as 2.5G along with GPRS) as generating 5% of unit shipments (industry wide) in 2001 (and 29% in 2002).

<< Feel free to spin it any way you want, Eric >>

If and when you see me inadvertently attempting to spin "millions" into "millions and millions", please advise, and I'll no doubt react with an apology to you and to the board, or at least a thank you to you, and an apology to the board.

- Eric -



To: carranza2 who wrote (19143)3/26/2002 4:56:31 PM
From: S100  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 34857
 
Still slugging it out, I see.

Sure a lot of odd stuff posted.

Let's see, there is so much pathetic BS, both here and on the Q buy range, so little time.

1X is a software load to the phone
6035 won't hot sync with XP
6035 is 1X
Turbo is a software load to the phone
Millions and Millions of GPRS
Nokia CDMA on the way RSN.

Well, the 1X stuff is in the spec but sort of hard to dig out, lots of tweaks, mainly on the reverse link. Read the specs, but it does need a certain level of MSM( hint, think 5xxx and higher).

6035 hot syncs with XP according to the newsgroups and the 6035 board. My tests with XP and my Sprint 6035 indicates that hot sync works just like on Win2k and 98. But I have a 6035 with software version KT1006, according to the debug screen in the phone.

BTW, Brew runs on XP.

The 6035 has a MSM3100 so no 1X.

For a clear view of the MSM in a 6035, go here

24.201.26.57:8088/Palm/6035_Palm/photos/.thumbnails/020316_4414.jpg.html

According to the CDMA2000 spec and the WCDMA spec (the 95, 2000 and wcdma specs are all available on the net) turbo is in hardware. Lots of processing power required so hardware implementation is a must. Interesting how the packet sizes differ in 2000 and WCDMA. Small packet sizes are slower in Turbo than in the Viterbi encoder. Neat how the 5 Mbit speed in 1Xtreme was based on a packet size not available in WCDMA.

I have the audio with the Millions and Millions but will leave it as an exercise for the student to transcribe ;-)

Reading some of the posts and especially when listening to a Nokia CC, I feel much like the pitiful trainer in this picture.

attrition.org

Always interesting how the control system for JO's audio shows definite signs of several poles moving into the right hand plane when he is discussing CDMA.

My favorite example from a CC last year.

Note, left out the umm, errs, and so on.
snip

really pretty good, really pretty good (from May 2001)
First of all, the CDMA of IS95 handset evolution in the US, we have made good progress in the terms of getting the strength and the depth in terms of our understanding of CDMA technology and to the same level, via a vie the expectations of the market as well as to some of our competitors in terms of what we had in GSM and TDMA arena and that progress really starts to show through for the first time this year. It has done so might not be seen on a monthly basis or a quarterly basis yet but it will through out this year, both through some of our interesting IS95 as well as 1xRTT products that we have in the pipeline as I mentioned.

What is happening there is that the operators that are deploying the 1xRTT technology, and all of them have sort of stopped a bit in the US to think, you know, what is the path going forward with TDMA operators in the US as well as in South America going to wideband CDMA, what this, what's going on here, is the service offering the capabilities as well as the cost dynamics that I explained in my presentation, is that after all favoring CDMA2000 as they thought earlier. So there is a lot of good thinking going on as we see it.

Now I think this is a good opportunity of commenting about some of the software issues that seem to be popping up every now and then, and now again there was a little piece. IS95 and the CDMA technology overall, is much less robust in terms of how it is specified, it is much looser, more loosely standardized protocol which means that different vendors and different operators have had varying interpretations on how you interpret some ruling in the standard and what that means going forward. So we had and issue, quote unquote, in the past weeks which was very similar to five or six instances there has been in both CDMA as well as in GSM world where we had a certain interpretation with the network connection which leads to a certain complication would be perhaps the best word when we move in the next 12 months to 1xRTT. And just in the normal way as we have always done in the industry both in GSM and in particularly in the CDMA when it is so loosely defined. We have worked with QCOM and with the operators and have found, in the last two or three weeks, a solution, which is network based and software solution. And there is agreement between the parties that I mentioned that that is a good solution and every indication that it will work. The final verification is underway, it will take another five days, ten days, that kind of period of time to finally test and verify and so on. And then we will go ahead as always been done in similar situations. So this is usual, nothing dramatic and I think that's kinda that fact.

… getting real kick of that kind of stuff over the next two or three years so I almost forgot the topic of the margins and the guidance. But let me make a couple of very general comments because the guidance that we gave in the connection of the first quarter particularly through the conference call is very very valid. In ten days that usually does not change much but yes we have been getting confirmation during the ten days that we did say exactly the right things. So it is very valid what we said. In terms of growth guidance, revenue guidance overall we said that 2002 and onwards, we see continued growth re acceleration and we reiterate our 25 to 35 percent band where we think we will be. That's out goal, it has been for the last five years, we have done very well topping that very often and as you know, this year will be a year of transitions for reasons that we have highlighted. But the growth opportunity clearly is there.

Handset, three to five years sustainable margin I think the next three to five years for the reasons that I really expanded on when I took this tour guide called commoditization and hit really hard and I think gives you a lot of good guidance. This is a business where that if you do it well, know what you are doing both hardware software, you execute well, you master the complexities, which are much bigger than they were in the 1990's, you can really make a healthy margin. No need to say anything more.

The every present question about which is growing faster than the other out of the two different … and the third party application platforms and the different services might play. We will be giving guidance on the topic on capital markets day and before that it is really your imagination which will advise and to tackle that topic, I think, to serve your customers. I think that is an interesting one. But we will come out with a view. I am simply commenting on the handsets and the infrastructure. I think we will get healthy good growth on both. But it might be in different phases because obviously year will be a very important year for recognizing the revenue that we are getting from those orders we now have and what we will have more in the next few months on wideband CDMA. When we will be rolling that out later this year and next year, it is really 2002, 2003 that you will see some major boost from the 3G rollouts and it remains to be seen in what phases the boost that one will be getting from the upgrade in handsets both in GPRS and in Wideband CDMA. You know, how that will evolve. But it is a healthy growth picture for handset in both 2002, 2003 as well as onwards. So, I do not see a drama in terms of within Nokia, the balance, if you want to in the two main businesses, no you can not reclassify us as a new kind of company. Both will be healthy businesses in revenue as well as earnings wise. And the work that we are doing gives us real good confidence on that.

The general picture, if you look at the evolution of the new technology as it has happened and will happen. Starting from analog, digital, GPRS, Wideband CDMA. What seems to happen is that some of the early reference contracts are being made at somewhat lower margins than is the case, when you go on you have the software upgrade and you have somewhat higher volumes. That has happened in each case, each situation as you take new technology and we were much more worried ten when the GSM first contracts were signed in 1990 to 1992, because we really had a pretty slow start in terms of the number of contracts and the investment to be deprecated was relatively much higher via a vie the volumes. Now we feel very comfortable that we can manage the transition because of the volumes that we have today and those of the second generation which will continue for the next few months as I indicated in the chart as well as in particularly the order book, the timing for the 3G we have today. So the volume is a very important ingredient. And if you look at out business model, the amount of people that we have in Nokia, network business or overall, you take any measure. The amount of personnel overall, the amount of R and D expense to get the technologies out. I think we compare very favorably, if not being superior in terms of the efficiently that we have in our fixed costs, in our investments to get the technology out. So sure there is pressure but there is for the reasons that I explained, we feel really pretty good. Really pretty good going forward in the next eighteen months. I, one has to be pleased. Our people have done tremendously good work.

snap