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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frank Pembleton who wrote (10054)	3/26/2002 6:40:04 PM
From: t4texas	Respond to of 36161

when we least expect it, we will get the cold shoulder season. it should happen unless (wasn't russ winter writing about nuke downtime a few months ago?) the nukes all over the states have things like corroded stainless steel pressure caps. i saw that ohio nuke problem made it to the ny times last night. it said the govt. is having all the nukes drop what they are doing and make sure they don't have a similar corrosion problem, etc. that will surely create lots of downtime for the nukes. if problems are found, it won't be a week chore. it could mean months or years of downtime. now wouldn't that be something. so if coal generating power plants are under utilized and arch coal is cutting back deliveries, does it take a long time for them to ramp up the coal generated electric plants with more coal? i don't know the lead times needed. i suppose the markets feel that the ng fired generators can react immediately, and that is correct. so if the nukes go down, i suppose the ng price will depend on the heat this spring and summer. it is not clear to me whether the ng plants installed so far could make up the nuke difference. i wonder what the numbers are.

To: Frank Pembleton who wrote (10054)	3/26/2002 7:20:42 PM
From: isopatch	Respond to of 36161

US energy stocks have been red hot, for weeks. riding a very strong bull move in natural gas. Though I was bullish and loaded up in late Feb, am genuinely surprised at how powerful this rally has been. Like the strong run in the gassers that I played from week before Christmas and sold in early January, this rally gave me a good place to make a lot of money while waiting for the PMs to take off again. And, more than compensate me, if I missed part of one of the gold runs. It's really fun to have two hot sectors to ride. One of them is almost always producing positive results in your accounts. AFA shoulder season is concerned? Am expecting It to be shorter this year with less adds to storage before AC season begins. The unusually cold March we've had in the lower 48 has continued to draw on NG storage more than industry expectations. And we could see another good AGA draw reported tomorrow. Don't know what the commodity services are expecting. But my guess is for a draw of somewhere between -80 and -100 BCF. Regards, Isopatch