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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TREND1 who wrote (44215)	3/26/2002 8:15:55 PM
From: TREND1	Respond to of 99280

OT: WOW ! I have 47 on ignore list. If you don't talk market, you get on ignore list. I do keep my email open, so you can always email me nice or nasty messages. I promise to read both(g) And feel free to put me on ignore too(g) Larry Dudash

To: TREND1 who wrote (44215)	3/26/2002 8:47:10 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

I just did some checking, as the low put/call ratio is bugging me. Here's what I found: Looking at past lows, Feb. 28's put/call was at 0.83, Feb. 22nds was 0.94, Jan. 22 was 0.65 (good for 76 points), Dec. 20 was 0.97, Oct. 30 was 0.91, July 24 was 0.75 (good for 164 points), July 11 was 0.87, June 19 was 0.73 (good for 208 points), May 30 was 0.74 (good for 164 points). Yesterday and today's put/call ratios were 0.65 and 0.66 respectively. The only other time they were that low we got a rally of 76 points (Jan. 22). The next lowest put/call was 0.73 on June 19, 2001, which was good for 208 points. The other low ones were July 24 at 0.75, good for 164 points, and May 30 at 0.74, good for 164 points. The low put/call ratio makes me suspect of the strength of this rally. I could be very wrong, but the other times we had this situation we also made only lower highs (June and July). That makes taking out 2100 a long shot, and challenging 1960 quite a task as well on this run up. The wild card is seasonal strength, distribution, and short covering. We've not seen the type of short covering we've seen at other bottoms other than the short rise this AM. We need some short covering and gaps up to accomplish a rise above overhead resistance. We also need volume. The largest rise was June 19, which coincided with the end of the quarter. We don't have as much time as we had back then to go up into the end of the quarter, so the possible range of a rise may be between 76 points and 164 points based upon the past 12 calendar months' put call ratio, possibly closer to the low end of that range. However, the June 19 low was a 50% re-trace, so maybe the range could extend to 208 points. Does anyone have the Tic's on June 19? I'd be interested to know what they were that day on the low.