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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (14178)	3/27/2002 12:31:59 AM
From: Bob Rudd	Respond to of 79003

Spek: I think the earnings/revenues from the taxol knockoff came down a bit quicker than expected. IVX has both generic and proprietary efforts going...trying to shift more towards the proprietary. Recent reports indicate that effort may be proceding slower than anticipated. Forecasting approval hits and misses with any degree of precision is not a skill I possess...these would be the catalysts...but my schedule got lost in the mail. I just buy it when it's unloved, like now, and sell it when it's adored...hopefully 1 to 3 years from now. The case for the generic aspect is the large number of drugs coming off patent combined with regulators umph to stop major patent extensions for minor features and legal ploys. The drawback of generics is the margin characteristics more like a specialty chemical co...except for the initial 6 month exclusivity when they are first. I also like the proprietary transition strategy as that will eventually lead to higher multiples. Recently my timing in this group sucks...so if you seek precision look elsewhere.