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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (116018)	3/26/2002 9:36:30 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

nice post, Jim... let me offer a few contrarian comments to your contrarian post... a Japanese investor who buys QCOM stock will lose on currency translation only if the yen appreciates against the dollar. but if people are trying to get rid of yen because they think it will go down, then changing to a foreign currency is one option. not that i would in any way shape or form recommend purchasing QCOM as a store of value. i am always a little skeptical of the goldbugs' idea that gold will go up because the Japanese are buying it. to me, it seems Japanese buying interest is the kiss of death. they are truly the world's worst investors (the second worst is Americans, who imho will soon become known as the worst investors of the century as the American Bear market separates them from their wealth). the Japanese bought their market at 100 times earnings, bought expensive real estate in Tokyo, New York, Hawaii... and then of course they sold these same properties sloppy when the markets cratered. now, some 12 years after their market peaked and a fat 70% off the high, they won't touch their own market with a 10-foot pole. they have spent the last decade hoarding cash with less than 1% return, and now they are rushing to buy gold. this is just a fad imo. it reminds me of a time a few years back, when the Japanese had to import a bunch of rice from strange places like California. of course, before this "crummy" rice from California and Thailand hit the shores, everybody started hoarding local rice. the news programs showed these long lines of people waiting to buy rice. not because of a food shortage, but because otherwise they might have to eat rice from California. whatever the Japanese investors are doing, i want to fade it, big time. that's why i've been a buyer of Japanese equities this year.

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (116018)	3/27/2002 8:40:43 AM
From: Art Bechhoefer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Jim, perhaps you are right that I don't have training or interest in precious metals. Here's what I see: QCOM is a growth stock, with earnings growth estimated conservatively at 25 percent or more for the next several years, regardless of the efforts of the GSM crowd to provide their higher cost alternative. Gold is a commodity with very little growth in industrial demand, and steady, slow growth for jewelry. Bullion is a limited market because of the cost of storing and transporting it. Gold mining companies like Newmont can be a reasonably good investment, but only if (1) their cost of production is lower than most other companies, and (2) there is a continuing need for gold as a safe haven in unstable countries. I no longer believe there is much difference in production costs, except possibly for the Freeport operation in West Irian (Indonesia), and that one is fraught with political problems. There always is some flash point somewhere in the world, providing a momentary impulse to buy gold, but those are temporary conditions. In short, I'm not impressed with gold as an investment, either in the form of bullion, coins, or stock. I am impressed with a company like QUALCOMM, whose real assets are in the skills of its people and the patents stemming from those skills. That, plus the inherent growth in demand for wireless communication, particularly in developing nations, is more than enough to wet my appetite. Art