Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (5891)	3/27/2002 12:11:45 AM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

As the first quarter draws to a close, Thursday's GDP release will include the first read on Q4 corporate profits. Q4 improvement should be modest at best given Q4's sharp economic downturn (despite the GDP growth) with risk of a stronger downturn after 5 quarterly declines over the prior year and a half leave a tremendous -18.5% annual decline -- little improved from the -18.2% annual pace in Q1 2001. The severe profit recession has driven corporate cost cutting which has left a sharp and continued decline in capital investment and strong employment layoffs. The chart below is intended to provide an historical perspective to the depth and length of the corporate profit contraction as expectations focus on improvement in 2002 building a base for increased demand for capital goods and manufacturing activity... ------------ 12:30 ET 10-year: +15/32..5.343%....GNMAs: +9/32....$-¥: 132.76 Hearing talk about a New York based think tank that says Fed sources have "concerns that the market may have too aggressively priced in hikes and what the FOMC considers a neutral bias." It goes on to indicate that the markets sharp reaction seen of late may have undermined what the Fed has done to boost the economy during its easing campaign. This, we would note, fits in nicely with the steepening we have seen today.