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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: t2 who wrote (44313)3/27/2002 1:02:43 AM
From: bobby beara  Respond to of 99280
 
bobby, It seems the VIX is cited as a key indicator for remaining bearish.<
nv, there always has to be a trap to keep most on the wrong side of the market.

the vix made a couple of blow-outs in 1994 to the 19-21 area in april and oct 94, and then then just kept going sideways on the rally from the 94 lows until 1997.

As i've noted on this thread a number of times about the vix puke in sept, that matched the vix puke in 98, and in 97, that the market trended up for a while after those pukes.

and mostly those who would continue calling tops off those rallies off the 97 puke, and the 98 puke would be wrong for longer than they expected (i was one of those, damm you gotta learn from your mistakes or you die)

the stock market is quite disconnected from main street right now, the nasdaq bubble and crash has not really impacted the economy, the nasdaq bubble may not be anything other than the oil and gold stock bubble in the late 70's, the computer bubble in the early 80's, the biotech bubble in the early 90's,

just as passing fad - not a major impact on the economy, while regular business moves on.



To: t2 who wrote (44313)3/27/2002 1:25:18 AM
From: SirRealist  Respond to of 99280
 
The place I'm most bearish is not NASDy but DOWdy. That's the stealth action that could surprise far more than what NASDy might hold.