To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (36586 ) 3/27/2002 11:10:15 AM From: Johnny Canuck Respond to of 68128 Spring Retail Review 23-Mar-02 00:48 ET [BRIEFING.COM - Robert Walberg] Though you can't tell from the weather here in Chicago, the calendar says it's Spring. Spring not only brings new flowers, it also brings new fashions. So off we went to the malls to do our seasonal review of the retail sector. Also a good excuse to get out of the cold. Let's begin with a look at the apparel companies... Woman's Apparel Talbots (TLB) 35.81: For the first time in a couple of years, I struggled to find merchandise with mass appeal... What I did find was masses of bold, brightly colored clothing that you would expect to see on (older) women taking a cruise, or visiting the islands... Not a bad idea to have a segment of merchandise allotted to vacation wear this time of year, but in TLB's case there seemed to be far too much of it -- especially considering the state of the economy and concerns over cruise travel in the wake of 9/11... The end result will be heavy discounting to move the inventory off the shelves... Need to see a return to traditional, classic styling for summer, or Briefing.com afraid that difficult comps and so-so merchandising mix will result in disappointing results. AnnTaylor (ANN) 41.79: The mirror image of TLB... ANN has struggled to recapture its client base after many quarters of merchandising missteps... Company began to find its stride around the holidays and is definitely back on track for spring and summer... Fortunately, nobody told the ANN buyers that brown is this year's black, as the stores are featuring classic black in a big way... Personally, see the whole brown push going the way of last year's denim debacle... Personal bias aside, if the crowds in the stores were any indication, company's attractive collection of basics and business wear has reclaimed the hearts and wallets of its client base. Coldwater Creek (CWTR) 19.40: On the plus side, company turns its merchandise over on a pretty regular basis... Unfortunately, there are times when the mix misses the mark -- and this is one of those times... Stores were reasonably crowded and we did see women buying, but the tilt toward tan/brown, combined with the brightly colored pastels, left this buyer looking forward to the next cycle... Given the reasonably sized crowds, not expecting any big negative surprises - but think the company will struggle to surprise on the upside as well. Guess ?, Inc (GES) 7.79: Back in November of last year, in the first in a series of three Briefs on the sector prior to the all important holiday season, Briefing.com noted that we were pleasantly surprised GES's merchandise and generally shocked by the traffic... Though merchandise was still a little spotty we expected to see some positive surprises coming out of GES... That's exactly what happened and the stock responded nicely, rallying as much as 38% before settling back a bit in recent weeks... Don't blame the merchandise, however... If the increased traffic is any indication - and it almost always is - GES continues to enjoy a revival of sorts... Clothes are definitely trendier than those found at stores listed above, but for the under 35 crowd that's where the demand is at... GES has carved into the bebe stores (BEBE) market with similar styling and slightly more attractive prices. Charming Shoppes (CHRS) 8.06: Whereas GES is for the thin set, CHRS is redefining itself as the company that caters to plus sizes... Company, which owns Fashion Bug, Catherine's Plus Sizes, Added Dimensions, acquired Lane Bryant last summer and now the largest share or the large women's market... One look around and you know that a) this is an underserved marketplace and b) there are plenty of potential customers... While the quality of the merchandise is often less than great, the pricing and styling are attractive enough to generate decent business as evidenced by the crowds and the busy registers. Children's Apparel Limited Too (TOO) 29.50: The competition for the young girls clothing market may have intensified over the past couple of years, but TOO remains the store of choice... Regardless of the high prices, the stores are always crowded and the lines at the register long... Based on a few visits to area stores over the past few weeks, nothing has changed. Children's Place (PLCE) 33.60: After a couple of quarters in which the merchandise left me cold, PLCE seems to have regained its footing as merchandise is basic if not exciting... Girls and baby lines are especially appealing... Given the store's attractive pricing, when the merchandise is solid, you can expect decent sales... Not looking for spectacular numbers but looks like a solid spring/summer is in order. Gymboree (GYMB) 13.81: Like GES, Briefing.com was pleasantly surprised over this company's holiday merchandise... GYMB was another company that struggled with spotty merchandise choices for past couple of years... Increased competition at generally more attractive price points also cut into sales... However, GYMB has responded recently with more attractive clothing... Return to primary colors was a good start... Pricing remains relatively high but there's enough sale merchandise to appease the more budget minded... And for those paying full price, the high quality and cute designs help to ease the pain. Robert Walberg, Briefing.com