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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (116036)	3/27/2002 9:30:38 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Art, i believe the Pegaso numbers are already excluded from QCOM's pro forma figures. as for better opportunities than Treasurys, well, there should be! if the inflation-protected US sovereign issue is considered a risk free 3.5% real return, then greater-risk instruments (i.e., all stocks) need to have a higher expected return than 3.5% real (or say 5% nominal) in order for there to be an equity risk premium. that is all just elementary. so when i state that i have a hard time seeing how QCOM will outperform TIPS over the next decade, that means i don't see where there is any equity risk premium...and if there's no premium today, i believe there will probably be one in the future (with attendant implications for market prices). unless you think the earnings stream from QCOM is more reliable than a payout from the US government on its sovereign bonds. (actually, the last statement might not be recognized as rhetorical on this thread -g-.) Many unexpected factors can interfere with anticipated growth, and QCOM had its share of them in 2000 and 2001 this is why, imho, equities need to be priced cheaply enough that their expected return will equal a historical risk premium over risk-free assets. fyi, the historical risk premium is about 4.5%. add that to 3.5% risk-free return from TIPS equals a required 8% real expected return, or 10% nominal. i would like to know what you (or others) think the current risk premium embedded in QCOM is, and how you derive that figure.

To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (116036)	3/27/2002 9:40:27 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 152472

Arty, the kicker is return of inflation I expect it to start with energy, horribly neglected that shoots the shorterm bond market straight up which attacks all highPE stocks, esp tech the spread in bonds between 3-month and 10-year yield has NEVER been this high historically I expect the shortend rate to rise from this temporary situation this is a big storm cloud for tech stocks I also expect big earnings disappointments across techland expansion of capital equipment will remain on hold then stage two is the effect on the dollar most expect rising rates to attract more foreign capital most bond experts expect the absolute opposite onset of inflation and rising rates are a curse to stocks AND bonds the dollar will begin to slide when GreenShorts raises rates he is very very very reluctant to do so a move toward parity with the Euro is in the cards finally the devil's blend sliding dollar imports inflation the dollar strengthened all 1990 decade long the 100% money supply inflation was hidden in trade deficits such inflation is imported BACK HOME in 2002-04 inflation from energy, inflation from imports and worst of all, inflation from 30% money supply increases since June2000 will soon filter in the system I expect GreenSpastic legacy to get wiped out, made a villain he has managed the Dept of Inflation for way too long in 2002-04, his inflation becomes naked and crystal clear gold and silver will be the ONLY inflation hedges where is the hole in the above sequence? has GreenSnot repealed inflation? by the fundamental definition, he is the King of Inflation it has yet to filter thru the pipes thru US history, such monetary inflation has NEVER failed to filter thru the pipes into prices of goods & services to get magnitude in mind... the increase to money supply since June 2000 is 40% larger than the ENTIRE money supply in 1965 I expect inflation to rage in a couple of years some bond experts believe we might see 5% inflation by December that is what historically the big Treasury spread indicates now in Germany, they have 5% inflation and 10% unemployment stagflation is coming to the USA soon best wishes to you and all the QCOM fans but be careful and expect a nasty storm all the clouds and storm fronts continue to build the biggest inflationary supply phenomenon in the last 80 years has been the 100% money supply increase under GreenScrotum from roughly $3.5 trillion to roughly $7 trillion check my figures, you will be astonished he is Secretary of Inflation, poster boy of inflation coming sooner than we might think I am into oil/gas stocks, with growing position in silver the world silver supply is almost zero commitment of traders is declining in silver, ready for blastoff / jim