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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Ramsey Su who wrote (20812)3/27/2002 10:51:16 AM
From: Jon Koplik  Respond to of 197275
 
Re : "[China Unicom] figures may not mean what you think they mean"

Well ... (as usual), on Wall Street today, the figures mean :

Therefore, sell Qualcomm.

Jon.



To: Ramsey Su who wrote (20812)3/27/2002 10:55:32 AM
From: slacker711  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 197275
 
I challenge them to tell me how many manufacturers, how many models, and how many handsets are available in each of the regions covering the 300 cities.

I think April 8 is going to be one telling date and there is some major telecom day in May.

As for cap ex, we need to understand who is talking, CHU or Unicom Horizon? Furthermore, were original expansions IS95 networks? Would all future expansion plans be 1X? The 7 trial cities are supposed to be all doing well.


I obviously dont have the answers to all of these questions. However, I hope that Qualcomm does....and I thought they were projecting a total of 1.3 million Unicom subs by the end of March. I wish I could remember where I saw that number....a presentation?

In any case, these numbers are pretty terrible anyway you look at them. Is it really this hard to design a handset with a R-UIM? It's never been a secret that these would be a requirement for Unicom.

As to the Capex plans....I think it was clear that the current network was all IS-95 (except the trials). The capex plan for this year was supposed to include upgrading the current network to 1x along with an additional new lines. Not much of a surprise that they are cutting back. What will really hurt is if they issue a GSM contract in the next couple of months.

Slacker



To: Ramsey Su who wrote (20812)3/27/2002 10:57:45 AM
From: rkral  Respond to of 197275
 
China Unicom company structure ...

"Unicom Horizon Mobile Communications Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of China Unicom" is a quote from a Qualcomm PR. Is this correct in your view?
qualcomm.com

At one time, China Unicom Corp. was the parent of China Unicom Ltd. (CHU). Is this still the case?
cm.nctu.edu.tw

If yes, then I guess China United Telecom is the parent of China Unicom Corp.

Thanks for helping sort this out,
Ron



To: Ramsey Su who wrote (20812)3/27/2002 11:28:19 AM
From: Dennis Roth  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 197275
 
I think one reason the new subscriber numbers look so bad is the January 7th launch ceremony at the Great Hall of the People was nothing more than a ribbon cutting ceremony and PR exercise. They weren't really ready for launch in terms of having enough handsets available or having the retail sales effort organized. We need one more month of subscriber numbers before we can conclude that they will never get anywhere near their goal of 7 million subscribers by year end. I still think it's a mistake to try and market CDMA as a premium service since it is not. It doesn't do anything the GSM service doesn't do and it currently has less coverage.



To: Ramsey Su who wrote (20812)3/27/2002 5:47:52 PM
From: David E. Taylor  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 197275
 
Ramsey:

As part of a broader exercise of trying to develop some forward projections of revenues and earnings for QCOM through 2005, I found myself needing to understand Unicom's corporate and operating structure better than the somewhat superficial view that I had. The following is a necessarily brief summary of the essentials of what I gathered from a fairly detailed review of publicly available material. I'm sure others will find important points I've missed in the links and references below.

The organizational structure of the Unicom companies is clearly shown on the China Unicom Limited (the "listed" company CHU) website:

chinaunicom.com.hk

and some detailed descriptions of how this structure evolved can be found on the same website:

chinaunicom.com.hk

The wholly state-owned "parent" company - China United Telecom Corp or simply "The Unicom Group" owns 77.47% of CHU (which was incorporated in Hong Kong in February 2000), the remaining 22.53% being publicly owned via the IPO in June 2000.

The operating company, China Unicom Corporation Limited (CUCL), is a wholly owned subsidiary of CHU, and actually runs the cellular, domestic and international long distance, data communications, paging, and internet services.

The only entity not shown in the organizational structure described above is "Unicom New Horizon", which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the state owned parent Unicom Group, which was formed solely for the purpose of constructing the CDMA network, thereby freeing the listed company CHU from the capital burden - and potential financial risk - of actually constructing the CDMA network. The operating arm CUCL is leasing CDMA network capacity from Horizon, pursuant to the terms of the "Lease Agreement", which is worth a read and which you can find here:

chinaunicom.com.hk

The lease agreement spells out that CUCL is leasing capacity from Horizon in the "listed service areas" served by CHU and its operating arm CUCL. The "listed service areas" comprise the nine provinces of Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Liaoning, Shandong, Anhui, Hebei and Hubei, and the three directly administered municipalities of Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin. The "listed service areas" are shown in blue on slide 18 of CHU's "CDMA Presentation" (also worth a read), which you can find here:

chinaunicom.com.hk

or in smaller form, here:

chinaunicom.com.hk

The capacity of the CDMA network in CHU/CUCL's "listed service areas" is 9.18 million, and it is that portion of the CDMA network to which the lease agreement applies. These "listed service areas" are also what all of CHU's operating data - subs, MOU, ARPU, etc. - for both the CDMA and GSM networks pertain.

The capacity of the CDMA network in the "non listed service areas", i.e. in the 18 provinces still served by the parent Unicom Group's operating arm and which are shown in yellow/orange on the slide 18 map, is 5.97 million. At present, I have been unable to find out anything about subs, ARPU, MOU, etc. for this portion of the CDMA network (or the GSM network in those regions either), but it's certainly possible that the old Great Wall CDMA subs are part of that service area, and are not in CHU's totals. The Unicom parent company website:

chinaunicom.com.cn

may shed some light here, but it's only presently in Chinese (English version "under construction", like the CDMA network <g>), maybe you or ML could take a look for us (Babblefish was not much use). There is a "CDMA" link on the home page which leads to some interesting looking flash demo stuff, but I didn't spend too long on it.

Next to finally, there was a pertinent comment in today's earnings release:

chinaunicom.com.hk

China Unicom is considering the acquisition of GSM cellular businesses and other assets in the remaining 18 provinces in Mainland China from its parent company at an appropriate time. This will assist the Company to set up a solid foundation for its future business development.

which indicates that consolidation of the "listed" and non-listed" service areas under CHU/CUCL is in the cards in the not too distant future.

Finally, a last key point here: the state owned parent Unicom Group coughed up the 24 billion RMB to build out the initial CDMA network, not the listed company, and so the state owned company will make sure that CDMA is a success, no matter what Euro analysts like Tero and many US analysts say. As a point of reference, today's CHU earnings release shows that CHU spent 20.78 billion RMB in expanding its GSM network in its listed service area in 2001, to accommodate the 14.26 million GSM subs they added last year, plus presumably some capacity for 2002 sub adds to the GSM network.

Hope all this helps us to see through some of the obvious fog. It certainly helped me.

David T.