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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (49028)	3/27/2002 12:33:11 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

RatMan, on metals consumption and trade deficit two concepts: federal budget deficits, trade deficits get ready for whopper budget deficits war does that very inflationary and stagnation-inducing from higher rates I believe a large portion of the US 1990 economic parade was owed to reduced interest rates now as rates rise, troubled corporate earnings will vanish trade deficits no longer have ANY media punch these months and they are the scariest part of the upcoming mess budget debts are passed onto children but trade debts are an inflationary timebomb of large proportions Japan will ensure that cars still come in cheap but trinkets from Thailand, chips from Korea, and scores of items from China will eventually rise in price not continue to fall in price each and every year sooner or later, the tide turns on metals consumption, I was surprised to read how much gold is consumed in jewelry it is all recoverable but who is gonna pry earrings, necklaces, and bellybutton rings off women in India in order to assist JPMorganChase with a gold delivery ??? nobody India is consuming 60 tons of gold per year that is 10x what I would expect to read gold is not consumed in dental work anymore, all platinum platinum is harder, whereas gold actually was dented from the bite!! gold is very malleable, altho inert silver is recovered mainly in photography not from film, but only chemical side for developing film almost no recovery in electronics, too costly most usage is with micro etching lithographic stuff what I find most encouraging about silver on the usage side is the totally inelastic demand if silver costs rise from $1 to $5 per 1000 Pentium chips, will they stop mfg chips? no way if film costs $10 instead of $9 due to 5x silver costs, will that stop photobugs? no way right now, costs of hightemp superconductivity are weighing enormous silver costs not against alternative metals, but rather against ripping up urban streets to upgrade electric lines into large consuming buildings silver is winning as lower cost it will continue to win as lower cost even if 5x the cost before 2010 I expect many Americans will be asking politicians and corporate leaders questions like... HOW CAN WE STABILIZE THE ECONOMY ? IT SEEMS TO GET MORE VOLATILE WITH WILD SWINGS EACH YEAR ? but by then it will be too late a deeper recession will have taken root from a decade or more of dollar saturation into the world I repeat a point made yesterday the vast community of totally ILLITERATE investors believes that increased Fed liquidity cures all problems but each EVENT results in larger infusions of liquidity each time the US economic bubble grows bigger and much scarier BenLaden and his Boys delayed the recession with war footing and greater deficits, recession will be deeper much much deeper probably will arrive later this year, or early next year the big scary indicator is totally ignored never since 1929 has largescale Fed money infusions and sharply reduced interest rates FAILED to raise stock market price indexes never, until now we are in for a modern-day version of 1929 this is a STRUCTURAL correction, not CYCLICAL inventory correction the difference is totally lost on investors huge difference pointing to years of recovery the solution will come slowly with currency linked to gold the Federal Reserve and Dept Treasury will resist because it limits their currently limitless spending spree it means depletion of the US Treasury gold reserves over time it means America shows its poverty unlike never seen before America is a society built upon entertainment, glitz, sports, media spotlight, debt for tomorrow, shop til you drop, bankruptcy here, bankruptcy there we raid the house equity, buy a boat, send kids to college not savings and building, spend money we dont have, now companies sell with zero interest I honestly believe 100's of American companies are empty bankrupt shells starting with General Motors and Ford going to Xerox, dozens more they are loaded with debt, far in excess of their mktcaps explain why? Afghany costs $1 billion per day where is the money coming from? where is it being spent? this is total mystery to 1000's of investors not to me actually, investors dont think about it, because they regard the USTreasury PrintingPre$$ as an indisputable endless source of capital, which may be spent without consequence to our economy or way of life very wrong a House Built upon Sand, not Gold (how am I doing, JManV?) / jim