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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (2449)	3/27/2002 3:37:49 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95572

Hi RtS, Really a nice positive divergence between The SOX and the Williams %R on your first linked chart. It seems to be a very good predictor that after William's % R has it's double bottom a nice rise occurs - notice how much higher the SOX value is vs the level it was at the last time it had a double bottom. That is extremely strong IMHO. I suspect that is an occurrence that is the result of money flows. Certainly speaks well for your support and followed by a rally expectation. ADX shows we need a little more time for the set up. I'm thinking once prewarnings are out of the way we rock up hard. The fuel of the rally will be turning up earnings (not there yet)but backlogs bolstering an improved outlook and 4 BILLION short sales to cover. The shorts represent 2 1/2 days of selling - assuming all sales are covering a short position.Sideline money will of course compete for the limited float out there also. Back in July and August of 01 four billion was a record for short positions.Now it is common and very close to the average.I have a funny feeling that those who think the low volatility (vix)signals a complacency that will result in a market drop may be 180 degrees off. With earnings definitely turning up as evidenced by the now sequential increases in "high frequency economic data" - THE REAL COMPLACENCY IS WITH THE SHORTS AND AT RECORD LEVELS TO BOOT!! Just as record margin debt signaled the top in march of 00 - I believe the complacent shorts will fuel the market to a level that can only be interpreted as richly anticipating the increased earnings of an improving corporate climate. JMHO Bob Thanks for your continued good work. Bob